{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.28 vs. cons $1.24",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$790M vs. cons $768M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.44B vs. cons $2.412B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.08 vs. cons $5.03 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Revenue guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$9.75B vs. cons $9.70B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.10B vs. cons $3.08B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Organic revenue growth guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~15% vs. cons ~14% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "IGT major-customer contracts finalized",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred 7 of 7 customers signed vs. cons 6 of 7 expected (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "HWM's own Q1'26 print showed an identical pattern: a large beat-and-raise produced a big day-1 pop (+6.6% residual) that then plateaued rather than extending or reversing over the following week. Heading into Q2, expectations are already elevated (stock +35% YTD, consensus tracking at/above guidance, PT upside thin), so even a clean beat-and-raise is likely mostly priced in. Implicit H2 conservatism (tougher IGT comps, Commercial Transportation still soft, added CAM interest expense) caps follow-through buying, while the fundamentally strong quarter and full-year raise should prevent a meaningful fade \u2014 net effect is an initial pop that largely holds but doesn't meaningfully extend over 5 days.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}