I'll research Iron Mountain (IRM) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings, news, filings, and stock data.Let me read the most recent quarter's materials for guidance and key drivers.Let me get recent analyst sentiment and consensus context via web search.Let me read the two most relevant preview articles for consensus estimates.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Report date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 (before market open) · Call: 8:30 a.m. ET Stock (8/4/26 close): ~$125.54 · Market cap: ~$37B · Consensus rating: Strong Buy · Avg. price target: ~$133
IRM comes into this print with all the momentum in its favor — it beat and raised guidance in Q1 — but consensus now sits exactly on management's own Q2 guide, so the bar is "meet the number and reaffirm the raise." The real action will be in the qualitative updates on data center leasing, the ALM/memory-price trajectory, and whether management raises full-year guidance again.
Consensus is essentially pinned to the guidance management issued on the Q1 call:
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | Mgmt Q2 Guide | Q2 2025 Actual | Implied Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | ~$1.97B | ~$1.965B | ~$1.71B | +~15% |
| Storage rental | ~$1.13B | — | ~$1.01B | +~12% |
| Service revenue | ~$840.5M | — | ~$702M | +~20% |
| Data center segment | ~$239.5M | — | ~$189.4M | +~26% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | ~$715M | ~$627M | +~14% |
| AFFO / share | $1.40 | ~$1.40 | ~$1.24 | +~13% |
A few things worth flagging on the setup: - The Zacks AFFO estimate of $1.40 has been unchanged for three months, and their model shows a 0.00% Earnings ESP with a Hold (Rank 3) — i.e., no statistical lean toward a beat this time. - That said, IRM has beaten AFFO/share in each of the last four quarters (avg. beat ~3.25%; last quarter +2.88%), and Q1 revenue upside came in at ~$80M above the company's own guide. The pattern has been "guide conservatively, beat, raise." - Note the harder comp: management flagged that last year's revenue-management (price-increase) actions were skewed into Q2 2025, making the storage price comp tougher this quarter. Watch organic storage growth (was +6% organic in Q1) for any deceleration.
This is the highest-beta part of the story. Entering the year management guided to ≥100 MW of new leases for 2026, but on the Q1 call CEO Bill Meaney said they expect to be "meaningfully above" that, citing advanced hyperscale discussions across the portfolio (India to Virginia). Scorecard so far: - 32 MW leased YTD through April (22 MW in Q1 + 10 MW in April, including a new global cloud customer in Amsterdam). - ~400 MW of capacity energizing over the next 24 months (development pipeline in N. Virginia raised 20% to 195 MW). - Renewal pricing spreads of +12% cash / +14% GAAP; new-lease pricing up double-digits.
What to watch: the cumulative MW-signed figure and any explicit raise to the 100 MW target. Because hyperscale deals are lumpy, a light quarter isn't necessarily bad — but a big signing (or a formal guide-up) would be the most likely positive catalyst. Data center Q1 revenue grew 47%; consensus implies a step down to ~26% growth, so a beat here is plausible.
Asset Lifecycle Management was the standout in Q1 (+92% total / +77% organic, data-center decommissioning >+100% organic). Management raised full-year ALM revenue to $950M (+$100M) and said component/memory pricing had moderated in late March/April but then stabilized, remaining well above last year and in line with original guidance.
What to watch: - Is memory/component pricing still holding? A roll-over would pressure the decommissioning "pricing" tailwind. - The bull case is that ALM growth is increasingly volume- and share-driven (added ~2 dozen new Fortune 1000 ALM clients in Q1; a 30-country sole-vendor advertising win). The bear case is that a chunk of Q1's strength was pricing plus lumpy project work. - The Meta/hyperscaler server-life-extension narrative (extending non-AI servers to ~7 years) is a debated risk; management argued it's supply-driven and actually creates offsetting demand for harvested/recycled memory and component-servicing projects.
The recurring physical-storage franchise is on track for its 38th consecutive year of organic storage growth. Global RIM grew 12% reported / 8% organic in Q1 at a ~44% EBITDA margin. Also watch the government/public-sector ramp: Q1 public-sector bookings were the second-best in company history, and the Treasury/IRS contract is expected to contribute $45M in 2026, then $100M+ annually from 2027 (FedRAMP High authorization opens more federal digital work).
The full-year framework raised in Q1: revenue $7.825–7.925B (~+14%), Adj. EBITDA $2.925–2.965B (~+14%), AFFO $1.735–1.755B, AFFO/share $5.79–5.86 (~+13%). - Given the "beat-and-raise" cadence, the market will likely treat another raise as the true bull signal; a simple reaffirmation could be read as a pause. - Balance sheet / capital: net lease-adjusted leverage improved to 4.8x (best since the 2014 REIT conversion); dividend $0.864/quarter (~2.75% yield), payout ratio ~61% (target low-60s). Growth capex remains heavy (~$492M in Q1) but management guides full-year total capex slightly down y/y and stresses data centers are largely pre-leased, not speculative. Retained-cash-flow guidance was raised to be ≥$300M above last year.
Because consensus is sitting right on top of guidance, the headline numbers will probably be a "meet," and the stock reaction should hinge on the data-center leasing update and whether management raises FY26 guidance for the second straight quarter.
Sources: IRM Q1 2026 earnings release and conference call transcript (Apr. 30, 2026); Barchart/Yahoo Finance and Zacks Q2 previews (Jul.–Aug. 2026); historical price data. Note "FFO/EPS" figures in some third-party previews mix Nareit FFO with AFFO; this preview standardizes on AFFO, the metric IRM guides to.