Report date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026, before market open Conference call: 8:30 AM ET Prior close (8/4/26): ~$125.54 | YTD performance: +~51% (from ~$83 to ~$125)
Iron Mountain enters this print riding significant momentum. Q1 2026 was described by management as a record quarter across every key metric: revenue of $1.94 billion (+21.6% reported, +17.2% organic — the fastest organic growth rate in more than 25 years), Adjusted EBITDA of $708 million (+22.1%), and AFFO per share of $1.43 (+22%). The quarter beat the company's own prior guidance by a wide margin, and management raised full-year guidance in response. The stock jumped roughly 10% on the day of that report and has continued to grind higher since, hitting fresh highs before pulling back somewhat in July.
The market has priced in continued strength: analyst consensus heading into Q2 sits at roughly $1.9686 billion in revenue and $0.543 in GAAP EPS, essentially in line with management's own Q2 guidance of ~$1.965 billion revenue, ~$715 million Adjusted EBITDA, and ~$418 million (or $1.40/share) of AFFO — a guide that implies ~15% revenue growth and ~13% AFFO growth year-over-year. Zacks' consensus AFFO/share estimate has been anchored at $1.40 for the past three months, though its quantitative model does not currently flag a strong likelihood of a beat (Earnings ESP of 0.00%, Zacks Rank of 3).
Investors should note Iron Mountain has beaten AFFO estimates in each of the last four quarters (average beat of ~3.25%, including a 2.88% beat last quarter), setting a high bar but also a favorable track record.
From the Q1 release/call, management's explicit Q2 2026 targets are: | Metric | Q2 2026 Guidance | Implied Y/Y Growth | |---|---|---| | Total Revenue | ~$1.965B | ~15% | | Adjusted EBITDA | ~$715M | ~14% | | AFFO | ~$418M | ~13% | | AFFO per Share | ~$1.40 | ~13% |
Full-year 2026 guidance (raised at Q1) now stands at revenue of $7.825–$7.925B (~14% growth at midpoint), Adjusted EBITDA of $2.925–$2.965B (~14%), and AFFO/share of $5.79–$5.86 (~13%). Any incremental raise — or even just a reaffirmation with commentary on second-half trajectory — will be a key focus, especially given the pattern of upward revisions this year (guidance was already raised once in Q1, driven by $80M of Q1 revenue upside and $95M of improved outlook for the balance of the year, split between ALM ($100M) and Records Management/Digital/Data Center ($75M)).
Data center leasing cadence. Iron Mountain has 400 megawatts of capacity energizing over the next 24 months and had already leased 32 megawatts year-to-date through April, well ahead of pace toward its full-year target of 100+ megawatts (management said in Q1 it expects to be "meaningfully above" that guide). Watch for updated megawatt bookings, renewal pricing spreads (12–14% cash/GAAP in Q1), and commentary on hyperscaler demand and power pass-through costs, which have been a modest drag on data center segment margin (52.1% in Q1, down slightly y/y).
ALM (Asset Lifecycle Management) and memory pricing. ALM revenue grew 92% y/y in Q1, and management raised full-year ALM revenue guidance to $950 million (+$100M) on strong decommissioning and enterprise growth. However, memory component pricing — a major swing factor — moderated in late March/early April before stabilizing. Investors should listen for whether pricing has held, whether hyperscale decommissioning volumes remain robust (management noted extended server-life trends at some hyperscalers are, so far, a net neutral-to-positive for IRM's harvesting/resale business), and whether the $60M of incremental ALM upside baked into guidance for H2 (mostly reflected in the Q2 guide) is materializing.
Government/public sector ramp. The multi-year Treasury/IRS digital transformation contract is expected to contribute ~$45 million in 2026 revenue (ramping to $100M+ in 2027), with Q1 government bookings described as the company's second-best ever. IRM's recent FedRAMP High authorization for its digital platform (InSight) is a structural positive for pursuing further federal work — any updates on new wins here matter for the multi-year growth algorithm.
Revenue management comp dynamics. Management flagged that 2025's pricing/revenue-management actions were more heavily weighted toward Q2, creating a tougher year-over-year comparison this quarter versus Q1, partially offset by incremental "cohort" pricing actions expected in H2.
Leverage and financing costs. Iron Mountain ended Q1 with net lease-adjusted leverage of 4.8x — the best level since its 2014 REIT conversion, and well inside the 7.0x covenant maximum. In late June, the company priced a $1.5 billion offering of 6.250% Senior Notes due 2035, using proceeds primarily to pay down the revolving credit facility. This is a story to watch closely: the company is funding an aggressive, multi-year data center build-out while carrying a sizable and growing debt load (~$17.2B total long-term debt as of Q1), and rising all-in borrowing costs (weighted average rate of 5.5% at Q1) will be a swing factor for AFFO growth. Commentary from Simply Wall St notes this tension explicitly, framing elevated leverage amid heavy capex as one of the biggest risks even as the growth outlook improves.
Capital allocation. The Board has been raising the dividend steadily ($0.864/share quarterly, ~61% trailing four-quarter AFFO payout ratio, in line with the "low 60s%" target). Full-year 2026 capex guidance stands at ~$2.2 billion (~$2.05B growth, ~$150M recurring), which the company has said should be roughly flat-to-down versus 2025 even as data center leasing accelerates.
Wall Street sentiment has remained bullish through the year. Ahead of this print, coverage describes a "Strong Buy" consensus, with nine of twelve covering analysts rating it Strong Buy, one Moderate Buy, one Hold, and one Strong Sell, alongside an average price target near $133. Multiple sell-side firms raised targets meaningfully after Q1 — Truist to $140 (from $130), JPMorgan to $138 (from $121), and Wells Fargo to $135 (from $125) — all maintaining Buy/Overweight ratings.
Broader sector context matters here too: data-center-exposed REITs have sharply outperformed traditional property types in 2026, and Iron Mountain — straddling legacy records-storage REIT and higher-growth digital/data-center/ALM platform — has been highlighted by real estate fund managers as a distinctive holding that blends defensive recurring storage cash flows with data-center growth optionality, even as its dividend yield (~2.7%) sits below pure-play data center peers.
With the stock roughly flat over the past month (choppy between $115 and $132 since its post-Q1 surge) but still up sharply for the year, expectations are elevated. A "clean beat-and-raise," particularly on data center leasing pace and ALM durability, would likely be needed to sustain the premium the market has already assigned; any signs of memory-price normalization hurting ALM, leverage concerns resurfacing, or data-center lease timing slipping could trigger a sharper pullback given how much good news is already priced in.
Given the run-up in the stock and richly priced expectations, this is a "high bar, high stakes" print — the operational story (data center + ALM + digital growth layered on a still-growing legacy storage base) remains intact, but execution against an increasingly aggressive guide, and disciplined management of leverage while funding that growth, are what the market will be grading tomorrow morning.