Report: Tuesday, August 4, 2026, before the market opens
Conference call: 8:00 a.m. ET (investor.gartner.com)
This report is primarily a referendum on Gartner’s contract-value recovery, not on quarterly EPS.
Gartner has continued to generate strong margins and free cash flow, while aggressive repurchases should make an adjusted-EPS beat relatively achievable. The harder question is whether the underlying subscription business is beginning to accelerate after Q1 contract value grew only 1.0%, or whether growth remains dependent on easier U.S. federal comparisons and financial engineering.
The setup is unusually polarized:
Consequently, an EPS beat without better subscription indicators may not be sufficient. The most important numbers will be total and ex-federal contract-value growth, wallet retention, new-business trends and the quality of any guidance increase.
| Metric | Q2 expectation or benchmark |
|---|---|
| Revenue consensus | Approximately $1.65 billion |
| Adjusted EPS consensus | Approximately $3.75 |
| Company Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance | At least $425 million |
| Street total contract-value growth | Approximately 1.9% |
| UBS contract-value estimate | 1.6% |
| Current FY26 adjusted revenue guidance | At least $6.405 billion |
| Current FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance | At least $1.545 billion |
| Current FY26 adjusted EPS guidance | At least $13.25 |
| Current FY26 free-cash-flow guidance | At least $1.16 billion |
The EPS and revenue consensus figures vary modestly by data provider; one current compilation shows $3.75 and $1.65 billion. (benzinga.com) UBS recently reduced its Q2 contract-value estimate to 1.6%, versus an indicated Street consensus of 1.9%, citing softer macro data and concern that ex-federal new contract value may again trail the prior year. (investing.com)
Reported revenue comparisons also require care because Gartner completed the sale of Digital Markets in February. The company’s current guidance and management commentary emphasize adjusted results excluding the divested operation.
Gartner ended Q1 with:
Q1 revenue and profit were better than feared, but the subscription indicators remained weak: wallet retention was below 100%, new business declined year over year, and existing customers were spending less. Gartner nevertheless reiterated that contract-value growth should accelerate through 2026. (investor.gartner.com)
Total contract value should receive a mechanical benefit as Gartner laps the sharp 2025 contraction in U.S. federal business. Federal contract value fell from approximately $200 million at June 2025 to $114 million by March 2026.
Assuming federal contract value remains near its Q1 level, a Q2 total-growth result around the 1.9% Street expectation would imply ex-federal growth of roughly 3.5%–4.0%. In other words, a headline acceleration from 1.0% to around 2.0% could occur with little underlying acceleration outside the federal business.
That makes the following disclosures especially important:
Management has said that Q2 has fewer renewals and more new business than Q1, which should be a more favorable seasonal configuration. The market will want proof that the improvement is broader than easier federal comparisons.
| Outcome | Contract-value characteristics | Likely interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Bull case | Total growth above roughly 2.5%, ex-federal growth above 4%–4.5%, and better wallet retention | Internal initiatives and improved sales execution are gaining traction |
| Mixed/base case | Total growth around 1.5%–2.0%, ex-federal around 3.5%–4.0% | Headline acceleration, but largely mechanical; recovery remains unproven |
| Bear case | Total growth below roughly 1.5%, or ex-federal growth fails to improve from Q1 | Recovery pushed out again; structural-growth concerns intensify |
These are analytical thresholds rather than formal company guidance.
The company guided to at least $425 million of Q2 adjusted EBITDA. Gartner has a history of issuing prudent profitability guidance and outperforming through expense management.
The current consensus calls for approximately $3.75 of adjusted EPS, versus $3.53 in Q2 2025. Q2 2025 revenue was approximately $1.69 billion, including businesses affected by the subsequent divestiture, while Insights revenue was $1.32 billion, Conferences revenue was $211 million and Consulting revenue was $156 million. (investor.gartner.com)
Insights
Conferences
Consulting
On the Q1 call, management said sales activity was strong during January and February, slowed in March as geopolitical uncertainty lengthened decision-making, and then improved in April as a number of delayed transactions closed.
That explanation makes the monthly Q2 cadence important:
Management reiterated at its June conferences that sales pipelines were growing at double-digit rates, but that deal velocity remained slower than normal. A healthy pipeline is encouraging, but investors need evidence of conversion into signed contract value.
The market’s central structural concern is that generative AI and deep-research tools could reduce the value of Gartner subscriptions.
Management’s counterargument has several components:
Tomorrow’s report would be more convincing if management provides measurable AskGartner and engagement evidence, such as:
Absent stronger quantification, investors may continue to interpret weak contract-value growth as possible AI disruption even if management attributes it to macro conditions.
U.S. federal contract value was approximately $114 million at the end of Q1, down from $126 million at year-end 2025 and approximately $200 million in Q2 2025.
Management has assumed that the federal business will be roughly flat during 2026 before eventually returning to growth. It also indicated that renewal rates were substantially better than during the initial DOGE-related contraction, though not yet back to historical levels.
Investors should look for:
If the federal base declines again, some of the expected mathematical benefit to second-half total contract-value growth would be delayed.
Gartner repurchased $535 million of stock in Q1 at an average price near $158 and exited the quarter with approximately 68 million diluted shares, compared with 78 million a year earlier. The board subsequently increased the authorization, leaving approximately $1.2 billion available. (investor.gartner.com)
Given that the shares traded as low as the high-$120s during Q2, Gartner may have continued buying aggressively. That creates several likely effects:
However, the market is likely to distinguish between:
The first would support a rerating. The second would help downside protection but would not resolve the growth debate.
The current outlook calls for at least:
The most important guidance question is whether Gartner still expects both total and ex-federal contract-value growth to accelerate through the remainder of 2026.
A constructive update would include:
A less reassuring update would raise EPS only through repurchases while maintaining cautious revenue assumptions and pushing meaningful contract-value acceleration into late 2026 or 2027.
Gartner enters the report with a low valuation, strong cash generation and substantial buyback capacity—but also with very little investor confidence in the durability of its historical growth model.
The near-term P&L is unlikely to settle that debate. Cost controls and repurchases can support another EPS beat. The stock’s more durable direction should instead depend on whether the report shows:
Bottom line: A total contract-value result near 2% may look like acceleration, but it will not be enough by itself. The cleanest bullish signal would be ex-federal growth moving decisively above Q1’s 3.5%, accompanied by better wallet retention and confidence in further second-half improvement. If those indicators remain stagnant, even a solid EPS beat may leave Gartner trapped in the market’s structural-growth and AI-disintermediation debate.