Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is cautiously constructive — consensus is a manageable bar, the federal headwind begins to lap, and Q2 is seasonally Gartner’s largest new-business quarter; the biggest swing factor is whether contract value (CV) acceleration materializes as management guided, or whether macro/geopolitical drag extends the timeline.

Bar: Consensus sits at $3.73 in operating EPS and $1.65B in revenue for Q2 2026 — a bar that reflects modest sequential improvement from Q1’s $3.32 beat and is broadly consistent with management’s raised full-year guidance issued May 5. The bar does not appear stretched; Gartner has beaten operating EPS in each of the last eight quarters, often by a wide margin, suggesting the street has not fully closed the gap to management’s typical outperformance cadence.

Guidance/Tone: Management raised full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance by $30M to ≥1.545B and operating EPS to ≥$13.25 at Q1 earnings (May 5), and explicitly guided Q2 EBITDA at or above $425M. At the June 4 Baird conference, CFO Craig Safian reaffirmed CV acceleration expectations, noted that many March-delayed deals closed in April, characterized Q2 as “a good bookings quarter,” and confirmed the Iran-war-related disruption “feels a little bit less risky” than in late March. Tone is cautiously optimistic with no incremental guidance cuts.

Estimate Trajectory: Operating EPS estimates for Q2 2026 have been essentially flat since the Q1 print, moving from $3.72 to $3.73 — a negligible revision that suggests the street is waiting for the print rather than pre-positioning. Revenue estimates have drifted slightly lower (~$1.655B post-Q1 to ~$1.647B currently), reflecting modest FX headwinds and consulting de-risking, but the gap to guidance is thin. The lack of upward revision despite management’s constructive tone represents potential cushion.

Stock Setup: IT has declined approximately 15% since the Q1 earnings date (May 5 close: $149.49; July 31 close: $151.02, but the stock hit a trough near $125 in late June before recovering). The stock trades at ~7.9x NTM EV/EBITDA versus ~10x six months ago — a 21% multiple compression over six months that has more than offset any estimate changes. At current levels, the stock appears to price in continued CV stagnation rather than the acceleration management is guiding toward, creating asymmetric upside if Q2 CV inflects.

Wildcard: The single biggest swing factor is the ex-federal CV growth rate — management guided ex-Fed CV to accelerate throughout 2026 (Q1 ex-Fed CV grew 3.5% YoY). A print above ~4–5% ex-Fed CV growth, combined with evidence that Q2 new business recovered from the March slowdown, could catalyze a meaningful re-rating. Conversely, any sign that the Iran-war disruption extended into Q2 or that consulting bookings disappointed would pressure the stock further.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar on both revenue and EPS, with the street essentially flat since the Q1 print. Contract Value is the primary swing factor — any acceleration above the Q1 1.0% YoY pace (or ex-Fed 3.5%) will be the key read for the stock on results day.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (Total Revenue, Operating EPS, Total Contract Value, EBITDA - Operating, Insights Revenue, Consulting Revenue, Free Cash Flow); Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Transcript (May 5, 2026) for guidance figures.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs: Operating EPS & Total Contract Value)

Pattern: Gartner has beaten operating EPS consensus in each of the last eight quarters, with a median surprise of approximately +10%. Contract Value has also beaten consensus in each of the last eight quarters, though by a narrower margin (~1–2%). The consistent EPS beat pattern reflects management’s conservative guidance approach and aggressive buyback execution; the CV beat pattern is more modest and is the metric the market watches most closely for evidence of re-acceleration.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management raised full-year EBITDA, EPS, and FCF guidance at Q1 earnings (May 5) and has not revised guidance since. The June 4 Baird conference added constructive color on Q2 consulting bookings and CV acceleration, but introduced no numerical changes. Tone is cautiously optimistic with the federal headwind beginning to lap.

Sources: Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript and Earnings Release (May 5, 2026); Baird Global Consumer, Tech & Services Conference Transcript (June 4, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — operating EPS for Q2 moved only +$0.01 and revenue drifted slightly lower. The lack of upward revision despite management’s constructive tone and raised full-year guidance suggests the street is skeptical of near-term CV acceleration, creating potential cushion if Q2 delivers.

Commentary: Estimates are tracking guidance closely and have been essentially frozen since the Q1 print — a sign the street is in “wait and see” mode rather than pre-positioning for acceleration. The slight downward drift in revenue and CV estimates (both -0.2% to -0.5%) likely reflects modest FX headwinds and consulting de-risking, not a fundamental change in the demand outlook. The gap between consensus and guidance floors is thin on revenue and FCF but more meaningful on EBITDA (+2.0%) and EPS (+3.2%), consistent with Gartner’s historical pattern of conservative guidance.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (revision history table, weekly frequency, May 8 – August 3, 2026); Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (May 5, 2026) for guidance figures.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: IT has dramatically underperformed both IGV and the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings, driven almost entirely by multiple compression (EV/EBITDA fell from ~10x to ~7.9x over six months) rather than estimate cuts. The stock’s recovery from the late-June trough (~$125) to ~$151 suggests some stabilization, but the stock remains well below pre-Q1 levels, pricing in continued CV stagnation.

IT vs. IGV vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (May 5, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Performance Summary (May 5 – July 31, 2026):

Key Events Since Q1 Earnings:

• May 5, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings — EPS beat, raised guidance; stock opened higher but faded as market focused on CV growth pace and consulting de-risking.
• May 19, 2026: Gartner announced participation in upcoming investor conferences (William Blair, Baird).
• June 2, 2026: William Blair Growth Stock Conference — CFO Safian presented; no new guidance, reiterated long-term targets and buyback capacity.
• June 4, 2026: Baird Global Consumer, Tech & Services Conference — CFO Safian added constructive color on Q2 bookings and CV acceleration; stock near $164 at the time.
• Late June 2026: Stock sold off sharply to ~$125 trough, likely driven by broader tech/software sector weakness (IGV also declined) and continued macro uncertainty.
• July 2026: Gradual recovery; stock rebounded to ~$151 by July 31 as sector sentiment improved.

Performance Decomposition: Over the past 12 months, IT has declined ~55%, with EV/EBITDA multiple contracting from ~16.3x to ~7.9x (a -51% multiple compression) accounting for the vast majority of the decline. Over the past 3 months, the stock is essentially flat (+3.5%) with the multiple also roughly flat (-0.6%), suggesting the de-rating has largely run its course. The 1-month recovery (+11.2%) has been driven by multiple expansion (+10.9%) rather than estimate revisions, consistent with a sentiment-driven bounce from oversold levels.

Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data; Stock Performance Decomposition Data.

6. Peer Commentaries & Current-Quarter Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for Gartner’s Q2 print. IBM, ExlService, Cognizant, and Accenture all reported in the last 60 days and collectively paint a picture of strong AI-driven demand for advisory and consulting services, clients moving from pilots to production, and enterprise IT budgets that are resilient on OpEx (favorable for Gartner subscriptions) even as CapEx-sensitive deals face timing delays. The primary negative read-through is Cognizant’s cautious tone on discretionary spending and Accenture’s geopolitical disruption commentary, which could signal continued pressure on Gartner’s new-business velocity.

Note on Scope: Only forward-looking commentary about the current reporting period (Q2 2026 / calendar Q2 2026) or commentary made after each peer’s last earnings call is included below. Prior-quarter results commentary is excluded.

IBM (Q2 2026 Earnings — July 22, 2026)

IBM reported Q2 2026 results on July 22, 2026, providing the most recent and directly relevant peer read-through for Gartner’s Q2 print.

Positive Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• AI Adoption Still Early-Stage: IBM stated “Clients remain in the early stages of AI adoption, making our combination of consulting expertise and technology a key differentiator.” This directly supports demand for Gartner’s subscription research, which provides strategic guidance on AI vendor selection, implementation frameworks, and best practices. Early-stage adoption means clients need external intelligence — Gartner’s core value proposition.
• OpEx Software Demand Resilient: IBM highlighted “strong underlying demand in our subscription and consumption-based software because these are generally purchased as operating expenditures” and were “largely unaffected by the CapEx dynamics.” Gartner’s subscription research is an OpEx purchase — this is a direct positive read-through for renewal rates and new business.
• Consulting Signings Growing: IBM consulting signings grew 6% in Q2, “marking our second consecutive quarter of growth and reflecting continued client investment in business transformation initiatives.” Demand for application modernization, data transformation, and cybersecurity services — all areas Gartner covers extensively — drove revenue growth.
• AI Moving to Enterprise-Wide Deployment: Generative AI represented “about 50% of our signings in the quarter, and now makes up over 30% of our backlog” as clients move “from pilots to enterprise-wide deployment.” This transition creates sustained demand for Gartner’s research on AI governance, vendor evaluation, and ROI measurement.

Negative/Mixed Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• Large CapEx Deal Timing Delays: IBM noted that “tens of large deals failed to close on the timelines we expected” in late June as clients redirected spending toward servers and storage ahead of expected price increases. While IBM characterized this as “deferral and not destruction” (a third had already closed in early Q3), the pattern of large deal slippage in late June is a potential negative read-through for Gartner’s consulting bookings, which management had already de-risked at Q1 earnings.
• Dynamic Technology Spending Environment: IBM acknowledged “the technology spending environment remains dynamic,” which could translate to continued elongated decision cycles for Gartner’s new-business pipeline, consistent with management’s own commentary about slower pipeline velocity.

ExlService Holdings (EXLS) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 28–29, 2026)

ExlService reported Q2 2026 results on July 28–29, 2026, providing the most recent data point on enterprise AI services demand.

Positive Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• Accelerating AI Revenue: Data and AI-led revenue grew 30% YoY in Q2 2026, accelerating from 28% in Q1 2026, 21% in Q4 2025, and 18% in Q3 2025. Management raised full-year guidance to $2.39–$2.415B (14–16% growth), citing “strong second quarter performance, sustained growth momentum, and healthy pipeline.” This acceleration in AI-driven services demand is a strong positive for Gartner’s subscription research, which provides the strategic frameworks enterprises use to evaluate and deploy AI.
• Faster Client Decision Cycles: Management noted “the velocity of decision making of deals by clients is actually increasing and the cycle time is coming down.” This is a direct positive read-through for Gartner’s new-business pipeline velocity, which management had characterized as “a little slower than normal” at the June 4 conference. If decision cycles are accelerating in adjacent IT services, Gartner’s pipeline conversion may also be improving.
• Clients Moving from Pilots to Production: ExlService highlighted that “clients are moving away from pilots and they want to go into production” and are “building out their foundations for the AI enablement of the enterprise.” This transition creates sustained demand for Gartner’s research on AI implementation, governance, and ROI — directly supporting subscription renewal and new-business growth.
• Gartner Cited Directly: ExlService management cited Gartner research in their earnings call: “Gartner predicts that by 2028, open source gen AI models will underpin more than 50% of enterprise use cases, up from less than 10% today.” This is evidence that Gartner’s research is actively used and cited by enterprise clients and peers, supporting the value proposition of the subscription business.

Negative/Mixed Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• Macro Uncertainty Persists: Management acknowledged “the macroeconomic environment continues to be a little bit unsettled,” and guidance reflects a “prudent” approach. This is consistent with Gartner’s own characterization of the environment and does not represent incremental negative news, but confirms the macro headwind has not fully cleared.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 29, 2026)

Cognizant reported Q2 2026 results on July 29, 2026, providing the most cautious peer read-through of the group.

Positive Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• Strong Large Deal Bookings: Cognizant signed seven large deals with TCV >$100M in Q2, with trailing 12-month bookings growing 5% and a book-to-bill of 1.3x. The “percentage of new business has bumped up by 10% in the first half.” Large deal activity indicates enterprises are committing to significant IT transformation projects, which typically require Gartner’s advisory services for vendor selection and strategic guidance.
• Financial Services Leading AI Adoption: Cognizant noted “Financial Services is well ahead with AI initiatives and advanced AI adoption” and views it as “a leading indicator for other industries.” Financial services clients are “leveraging AI for growth imperatives with new discretionary spend cycles.” This sector-specific AI acceleration is positive for Gartner’s subscription research demand in financial services.
• Massive AI Market Opportunity: Cognizant estimated the “$1 trillion system integration market can expand into $5–6 trillion enterprise operations market, with $4.5 trillion of operational labor exposed to AI services.” This market expansion thesis directly supports long-term demand for Gartner’s research and advisory services.

Negative/Mixed Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• Cautious Discretionary Spending Environment: Cognizant’s revised full-year guidance assumes “the discretionary spending environment remains stable at the midpoint,” a change from prior guidance that “contemplated an improved discretionary spending environment.” Health Sciences demand “remains cautious and cost-driven” with “discretionary spend facing tight scrutiny.” This is the most direct negative read-through for Gartner — if discretionary IT spending remains under pressure, Gartner’s new-business pipeline conversion could remain slow.
• Macro Uncertainty Elevated: Management noted “macro uncertainty has remained elevated” and that “caution to persist in the near term.” Muted demand in comms/media, retail, consumer goods, and travel/hospitality could translate to reduced spending on Gartner research in those segments.
• Two-Thirds of Global 2000 Have Not Realized AI Productivity Gains: Cognizant’s research shows “two thirds of the global 2000 have not yet realized measurable AI productivity gains” and “1 in 4 have paused AI deployments.” While this creates a long-term opportunity for Gartner’s advisory services, it also suggests near-term AI spending may be more selective and ROI-focused, potentially slowing new subscription commitments.

Accenture (ACN) — Q3 FY2026 Earnings (June 18, 2026) & AI Investor Day (June 9, 2026)

Accenture reported Q3 FY2026 results on June 18, 2026 (covering the March–May 2026 period), providing commentary on the demand environment heading into Gartner’s Q2 2026 reporting period.

Positive Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• AI as a Structural Tailwind: Accenture CEO Julie Sweet stated “AI will be a tailwind for us and our industry as it scales, because it is a catalyst for reinvention and is creating new opportunities for growth and efficiency.” Four consecutive quarters of consulting bookings growth, with AI and data partner bookings on track to more than double vs. FY2025. This structural demand for AI advisory directly benefits Gartner’s subscription research.
• Clients Moving from Pilots to Production: Accenture is “seeing more clients move from pilots to production” and clients with “more advanced digital cores move to larger AI transformation programs.” The average size of AI projects is showing “a steady increase.” This transition creates sustained demand for Gartner’s research on AI governance, vendor evaluation, and implementation best practices.
• Broad-Based Consulting Demand: Demand is “broad-based” across digital manufacturing, cybersecurity, change management, and marketing — all areas where Gartner provides extensive research. Managed services are evolving with “clients asking for more consulting and AI expertise within them.
• Federal Business Recovering: Accenture expects its federal business to “anniversary the headwind and get back to growth in the fourth quarter.” This is a direct positive read-through for Gartner, which is also lapping its federal headwind in Q2 2026 (federal CV was a 250bps headwind in Q1 2026).
• Mid-Market Expansion: Accenture is launching “Accenture Edge” to target the mid-market ($300M–$3B revenue companies), a “$240 billion addressable market growing high single digits.” Mid-market companies, with fewer internal resources, are prime candidates for Gartner’s subscription research to inform technology decisions.

Negative/Mixed Read-Throughs for Gartner:

• Middle East Conflict Disrupting Discretionary Spend: Accenture saw ~$100M revenue impact in Q3 FY2026 from the Middle East conflict, “all consulting type of work,” with indirect effects globally in “mostly discretionary spend.” Management expects “more impact in Q4” from this indirect effect. This is a direct negative read-through for Gartner’s new-business pipeline, consistent with management’s own commentary about the Iran-war disruption slowing March decisions.
• Large Managed Services Deal Push-Outs: A “couple of large managed services opportunities moved into FY27 for company-specific reasons.” While company-specific, this pattern of large deal slippage is consistent with the broader theme of elongated decision cycles that Gartner has also experienced.
• Persistent Discretionary Spending Challenges: Accenture acknowledged “the industry has had this challenge now for a few years on discretionary spend, which is really smaller deals.” This is consistent with Gartner’s experience of slower new-business pipeline velocity and suggests the headwind has not fully cleared.
• Macro Uncertainty Widening Q4 Guidance Range: Accenture noted “given the macro uncertainty, we expect more of the guided range to be in play for Q4,” with the low end implying “ongoing deterioration” in discretionary spend. This is the most cautious forward-looking statement from any peer and represents a potential risk to Gartner’s Q2 new-business recovery.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the $600M buyback authorization expansion (announced April 30 / disclosed May 5), which signals board confidence and provides a meaningful EPS tailwind beyond guidance. The June 4 Baird conference provided the most substantive post-earnings update, confirming Q2 bookings recovery and CV acceleration expectations.

• May 5, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Raise: Gartner reported Q1 2026 results with operating EPS of $3.32 (+14.9% vs. consensus), raised full-year EBITDA guidance by $30M to ≥$1.545B, raised operating EPS guidance to ≥$13.25, and raised FCF guidance to ≥$1.16B. Management repurchased $535M of stock in Q1 (3.3M shares), reducing share count by >4%. Implication: Sets a constructive baseline; the EPS beat and guidance raise were better than feared given macro headwinds.
• April 30 / May 5, 2026 — $600M Buyback Authorization Expansion: Board approved an additional $600M share repurchase authorization (effective April 30, disclosed May 5), bringing total available authorization to approximately $1.2B. Implication: Signals board confidence in the business and provides a meaningful EPS tailwind; management’s FY2026 EPS guidance of ≥$13.25 is based on 69M shares and incorporates only Q1 repurchases — additional Q2 buybacks represent upside to guidance.
• June 2, 2026 — William Blair Growth Stock Conference: CFO Craig Safian presented; no new guidance. Reiterated long-term CV growth targets (12–16% medium-term objective still available in Gartner 101 materials), 12% 3-year EPS CAGR commitment, and $2B of “dry powder” entering the year. Implication: No incremental negative news; reinforces capital return commitment.
• June 4, 2026 — Baird Global Consumer, Tech & Services Conference (Most Substantive Post-Earnings Update): CFO Safian provided the most detailed post-Q1 update: (1) Q2 is expected to be “a good bookings quarter” for consulting; (2) many March-delayed deals closed in April; (3) factory pipelines growing at double-digit rates despite slower velocity; (4) Iran-war disruption “feels a little bit less risky” than in late March; (5) federal CV modeled flat in 2026 with Q1 renewal rates “significantly better than last year”; (6) AI is “not disrupting” Gartner’s business — engagement metrics confirm this. Implication: Most important post-earnings data point; constructive on Q2 setup without raising the bar numerically.
• Ongoing — BTI Transformation: Gartner’s Business & Technology Insights (BTI) transformation — described as “more change than we’ve ever done at Gartner” in 20 years — is expected to produce more and better insights, driving engagement and supporting new-business growth. AskGartner beta rollout to all licensed users was completed by end of October 2025; early data shows meaningfully better retention among users. Implication: A medium-term catalyst for CV re-acceleration; Q2 engagement metrics will be a key indicator of progress.
• Ongoing — U.S. Federal Government Lapping: Q2 2026 is the first quarter where Gartner begins to lap the most severe DOGE-driven cancellations (which occurred in March–April 2025). Federal CV exited Q1 2026 at ~$114M; management models it flat in 2026. Q1 2026 federal renewal rates were “significantly better than last year.” Implication: The federal headwind mechanically diminishes in Q2 2026, which should support total CV growth acceleration even without improvement in the non-federal business.
• Ongoing — Geopolitical/Macro Uncertainty: The Iran war (onset March 2026) caused decision-making to slow in March, particularly in GCC countries and energy-intensive industries. Many delayed deals closed in April. As of June 4, the situation “feels less risky” than in late March. Tariff volatility and trade policy uncertainty remain parallel headwinds for clients with supply chain exposure. Implication: The acute disruption appears to have passed, but the macro overhang has not fully cleared — pipeline velocity remains below normal.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sales by executives since Q1 earnings. All transactions are routine — RSU grants to directors (May 28 annual grant cycle), RSU vesting/tax withholding for executives, and director compensation stock equivalent conversions. The absence of any discretionary selling by the CEO, CFO, or other senior executives is a mild positive signal, particularly given the stock’s sharp decline from ~$165 in late May to ~$125 in late June.

Open-Market Buys and Sells (Form 4, Codes P/S) — May 5 to August 3, 2026:

No open-market purchases (Code P) or open-market sales (Code S) were filed by any Gartner insider during this period. All transactions in the dataset are routine non-discretionary events.

Notable Non-Discretionary Transactions (For Context)

Assessment: The insider transaction picture is clean — no discretionary selling despite the stock declining from ~$165 in late May to ~$125 in late June. The CEO (Gene Hall) and CFO (Craig Safian) have not filed any open-market sales. The May 29 Code J transactions for Hall, Safian, van Ham, and others are routine stock equivalent conversions (dividend reinvestment or deferred compensation plan conversions), not open-market purchases. The absence of insider selling during a significant stock decline is a mild positive signal, suggesting insiders do not view the current price as an opportunity to reduce exposure.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data). Individual filing links available for each transaction.

Disclosures & Sources

• Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI consensus estimates and actuals (Total Revenue, Operating EPS, Total Contract Value, EBITDA - Operating, Insights Revenue, Consulting Revenue, Free Cash Flow). Source: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/IT_US/NMV/IS; https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/IT_US/NMV/R; https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/IT_US/NMV/CF; https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/IT_US/NMV/SG
• Stock Price Data — IT, IGV, SPY daily closing prices (May 5 – August 4, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance.
• Insider Transaction Data — SEC Form 4 filings (May 5 – August 3, 2026). Source: SEC EDGAR (https://www.sec.gov/).
• Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Earnings Release — May 5, 2026. Source: Gartner Investor Relations / SEC EDGAR.
• Gartner Board Approves Additional $600M Share Buyback — 8-K filed May 5, 2026 (effective April 30, 2026). Source: SEC EDGAR.
• William Blair Growth Stock Conference Transcript — June 2, 2026.
• Baird Global Consumer, Tech & Services Conference Transcript — June 4, 2026.
• IBM Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — July 22, 2026.
• ExlService Holdings Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Earnings Release — July 28–29, 2026.
• Cognizant Technology Solutions Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Earnings Release — July 29, 2026.
• Accenture Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Earnings Release — June 18, 2026.
• Stock Performance Decomposition Data — NTM EV/EBITDA and other multiples. Source: Implied Analytics.