J Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
J Report Adjusted EPS (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$1.88 vs. cons $1.83 MEDIUM
J Report Adjusted net revenue (FQ3'26) IN-LINE pred ~$2.42B vs. cons $2.40B MEDIUM
J Report Adjusted EBITDA margin (FQ3'26) IN-LINE pred ~15.0% vs. cons ~14.8% MEDIUM
J Guide FY26 adjusted EPS guide BETTER guide ~$7.30 mid (narrow to $7.25-7.35) vs. cons $7.23 (FY26) MEDIUM
J Guide FY26 adjusted net revenue growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~9-10.5% (~$13.1B) vs. cons ~$13.0B (FY26) LOW
J Guide Backlog / book-to-bill (leading indicator) BETTER guide record ~$28B, B2B >1.0x vs. prior $27.0B / yr-ago $22.7B (FQ3'26) MEDIUM
J Guide AI/data-center growth & pipeline commentary UNKNOWN guide DC ~3-4% of rev growing >100%, pipeline +400% vs. cons expects sustained >100% (FQ3'26) MEDIUM
J Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.0% MEDIUM
J Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock rallied ~17% into the print (to $138.75, +2.8% on 8/3) and J has a strong pattern of selling good news (-11% after Q4'25, -20% over the week after the Q2'26 beat-and-raise). A modest EPS beat is capped by the guided step-up in the tax rate to 27-28% (from 24.3%), and only a narrow FY26 guide-raise against consensus already at $7.23 leaves little upside surprise. The demanding out-period math (implied Q4 >16% margin and double-digit reaccel on the 14th week) invites estimate trims into the tail, and the prior post-print fade continued for days — favoring downward follow-through rather than a bounce. LOW