| KDP |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.54 vs. cons $0.53 |
MEDIUM |
| KDP |
Report |
Net sales (first full JDEP consolidation) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$7.10bn vs. cons $7.05bn |
MEDIUM |
| KDP |
Report |
U.S. Coffee operating income (YoY) |
MISS |
pred ~-14% YoY vs. cons ~-7% |
MEDIUM |
| KDP |
Guide |
FY2026 constant-currency adjusted EPS growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~low-double-digit (~11%) vs. cons ~11% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| KDP |
Guide |
FY2026 net sales |
UNCHANGED |
guide $25.9-26.4bn vs. cons ~$26.1bn (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| KDP |
Guide |
Implied H2 U.S. Coffee margin recovery |
LOWER |
guide ~+1,000bps H2 vs. cons ~+1,000bps needed (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| KDP |
Guide |
Midyear net leverage / FY26 FCF |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~4.5x leverage & ~$2.5bn FCF vs. cons ~4.5x / ~$2.5bn (midyear/FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| KDP |
Guide |
Early-2027 separation timeline (post-Oliveira exit) |
UNCHANGED |
guide separation early-2027 vs. prior early-2027 (0 change to plan) |
MEDIUM |
| KDP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| KDP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.0% (FADE) |
A modest EPS beat plus reaffirmed FY guide and on-track separation should spark initial relief on the promised Q2 EPS re-acceleration, but the print leans on a big back-half-loaded hockey stick (implied ~1,000bps H2 coffee margin recovery) that keeps skeptics wary. With U.S. Coffee/JDEP profit still constrained and out-period math implying the recovery must accelerate, analysts trim later-quarter estimates even after the beat, so the day-1 pop fades back toward flat over the week. |
LOW |