The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

The Kraft Heinz Company

Ticker

KHC (Nasdaq)

Upcoming Earnings Date

August 5, 2026 (Q2 2026 Earnings Call, 9:00 AM ET)

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 28, 2026)

Preparation Date

August 4, 2026

Sector ETF Benchmark

XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 is a low bar — management explicitly guided organic net sales to -3% to -5% for the quarter, driven by the Easter timing shift and SNAP headwinds, and consensus has barely moved since the Q1 print. The biggest swing factor is whether the market share recovery trajectory that accelerated sharply through March held into April-June, or whether SNAP and category softness overwhelmed the investment-driven momentum.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for KHC is deliberately set low: management guided organic net sales to -3% to -5% on the Q1 call, citing the Easter timing shift (which pulled volume into Q1) and a ~100 bps SNAP headwind beginning in Q2. Consensus organic growth sits at -3.6% and adjusted EPS at $0.53, both essentially unchanged since the Q1 print on May 6 — a sign that the Street has anchored to guidance rather than extrapolating Q1 momentum. Management’s posture was cautiously optimistic but deliberately conservative: they maintained full-year guidance despite a meaningful Q1 beat, explicitly flagging that the vast majority of the $600M investment plan remains undeployed and will be spent through the remainder of the year. The stock has rallied ~15% since the Q1 print (from $23.07 to ~$26.64 as of August 5), outperforming XLP, suggesting the market has partially priced in stabilization — but the multiple remains deeply discounted at ~12.6x NTM P/E vs. a historical average near 17x, leaving room for re-rating if share trends confirm. The key wildcard is the departure of Cory Onell (Chief Omnichannel Sales & Asia Emerging Markets Officer, effective June 30, 2026) — a senior commercial leader exiting mid-turnaround raises execution risk questions that management will need to address directly on the call. Additionally, energy and resin inflation spiking due to Middle East conflict could pressure Q3 margins, as KHC’s resin hedges only extend through mid-Q3.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low bar heading into Q2 — organic net sales growth is the bigger swing factor, with the Street modeling -3.6% vs. management’s own -3% to -5% guide. Adjusted EPS at $0.53 is also well below Q2 2025’s $0.69 actual, reflecting the full weight of the $600M investment plan hitting the P&L. A beat on organic growth or gross margin would be the positive surprise.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter)

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year Period)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change (Est. vs. PY)

Guidance (FY 2026)

Consensus vs. Guidance

Net Sales ($B)

$6.047B

$6.352B

$6.120B

-3.7%

FY: ~$24.5B implied

In line with FY guide

Organic Net Sales Growth (%)

-0.4%

-2.0%

-3.6%

-1.6 pp vs. PY

FY: -1.5% to -3.5%

Within guide range

Adj. EPS (Diluted, Operating)

$0.58

$0.69

$0.53

-23.2%

FY: $1.98–$2.10

~$0.53 implies ~25% of FY midpoint

Adj. Gross Profit ($B)

$2.064B

$2.168B

$2.051B

-5.4%

Margin: -25 to -75 bps YoY

Implies ~33.5% margin

Adj. Operating Income ($B)

$1.058B

$1.276B

$1.034B

-19.0%

FY: -14% to -18% CC

Within guide range

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Net Sales, Organic Growth, EPS (Diluted Operating), Gross Profit (Operating), Operating Income (Operating) sourced from Visible Alpha consensus as of August 4, 2026. Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 actuals from Visible Alpha reported figures. FY 2026 guidance from KHC Q1 2026 earnings release (May 6, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs: Organic Net Sales Growth & Adj. EPS)

Quarter

KPI

Reported

Consensus

Surprise %

Result

Q1 2026

Organic Growth

-0.4%

-2.8%

+2.4 pp

Beat

Q1 2026

Adj. EPS

$0.58

$0.50

+16.0%

Beat

Q4 2025

Organic Growth

-4.2%

-3.9%

-0.3 pp

Miss

Q4 2025

Adj. EPS

$0.67

$0.61

+9.8%

Beat

Q3 2025

Organic Growth

-2.5%

-2.2%

-0.3 pp

Miss

Q3 2025

Adj. EPS

$0.61

$0.58

+5.2%

Beat

Q2 2025

Organic Growth

-2.0%

-3.0%

+1.0 pp

Beat

Q2 2025

Adj. EPS

$0.69

$0.64

+7.8%

Beat

Q1 2025

Organic Growth

-4.7%

-4.2%

-0.5 pp

Miss

Q1 2025

Adj. EPS

$0.62

$0.61

+1.6%

Beat

Q4 2024

Organic Growth

-3.1%

-2.4%

-0.7 pp

Miss

Q4 2024

Adj. EPS

$0.84

$0.78

+7.7%

Beat

Q3 2024

Organic Growth

-2.2%

-1.7%

-0.5 pp

Miss

Q3 2024

Adj. EPS

$0.75

$0.74

+1.4%

Beat

Pattern: KHC has beaten Adj. EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, but organic net sales growth has missed in 5 of the last 8 quarters — the EPS beats are driven by cost discipline and below-the-line items, not top-line outperformance. The Q1 2026 organic growth beat (+2.4 pp) was the largest in recent history, though management attributed a portion to Easter timing and winter storm pantry loading. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call on May 6, 2026 — management maintained all full-year metrics despite the Q1 beat, citing the volatile macro environment and the bulk of the $600M investment plan still to be deployed. The only post-earnings development is the departure of the Chief Omnichannel Sales Officer (June 18, 2026), which is a tone-negative signal for commercial execution.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 6, 2026)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

Organic Net Sales Growth (FY 2026)

-1.5% to -3.5% vs. prior year (incl. ~100 bps SNAP headwind)

Unchanged

-1.95%

Maintained despite Q1 beat; management cited Easter timing and winter storms as transitory tailwinds

CC Adj. Operating Income (FY 2026)

Down 14% to 18% vs. prior year

Unchanged

~$4.0B

Includes ~$600M incremental investment and ~300 bps headwind from lapping lower variable comp in 2025

Adj. Gross Profit Margin (FY 2026)

Down 25–75 bps vs. prior year

Unchanged

N/A — not tracked separately in VA

Inflation in energy/resins flagged as upside risk; hedged through mid-Q3 on resins

Adj. EPS (FY 2026)

$1.98–$2.10

Unchanged

$2.07

Consensus at midpoint of range; effective tax rate ~25%; interest expense ~$920M

Free Cash Flow Conversion (FY 2026)

~100%

Unchanged

N/A

Q1 FCF was $0.8B (+58.9% YoY); H2 expected lower due to stepped-up investment spending

Q2 2026 Organic Net Sales (Specific Quarter Guide)

-3% to -5% (stated on Q1 call)

Unchanged

-3.6%

Easter shift, SNAP headwind, category softness; partially offset by Away From Home and EM improvement

Source: KHC Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Earnings Call Transcript (May 6, 2026). Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data for current consensus figures.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 2026 EPS consensus moved only from $0.523 to $0.528 (+0.9%) and net sales from $6.091B to $6.120B (+0.5%) over the 12 weeks since May 8. The FY 2026 EPS consensus of $2.07 sits at the midpoint of management’s $1.98–$2.10 guide, suggesting the Street is not pricing in either a meaningful beat or miss. The lack of revision activity is itself a signal: the market is waiting for Q2 data to determine whether Q1’s share recovery was durable.

KPI (Period)

Estimate (May 8, 2026 — 5 Days Post Q1 Print)

Current Consensus (Aug 4, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 Call, May 6)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

Adj. EPS — Q2 2026

$0.523

$0.528

+0.9%

No specific Q2 EPS guide

Unchanged

N/A

N/A

Adj. EPS — FY 2026

$2.064

$2.070

+0.3%

$1.98–$2.10 ($2.04 midpoint)

Unchanged

No change

+1.5% above midpoint

Net Sales — Q2 2026

$6.091B

$6.120B

+0.5%

No specific Q2 net sales guide

Unchanged

N/A

N/A

Net Sales — FY 2026

$24.453B

$24.491B

+0.2%

Organic: -1.5% to -3.5%

Unchanged

No change

Within guide range

Organic Growth — Q2 2026

-4.08%

-3.57%

+0.5 pp (less negative)

-3% to -5%

Unchanged

No change

Within guide range; at better end

Organic Growth — FY 2026

-2.14%

-1.95%

+0.2 pp (less negative)

-1.5% to -3.5%

Unchanged

No change

At better end of guide range

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Baseline estimates as of May 8, 2026 (5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings). Current consensus as of August 4, 2026. Revision history sourced from Visible Alpha revision history table (weekly frequency, May 8 – August 4, 2026).

Commentary: The near-zero revision activity since the Q1 print is notable — it reflects the Street’s view that Q1 was a timing-aided beat and that Q2 will look more like management’s guide. The modest drift toward the better end of the organic growth range (from -4.08% to -3.57% for Q2) suggests some analysts are giving credit to the underlying share recovery momentum, but the move is too small to signal conviction. The key question for the print is whether the share trajectory data (which management has been reporting in real-time) justifies a more meaningful upward revision to the H2 outlook.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: KHC has rallied ~15% since the Q1 2026 earnings print (May 6, 2026), significantly outperforming both XLP (+1.3%) and the S&P 500 (+5.1%) over the same period. The outperformance is driven almost entirely by multiple expansion (NTM P/E expanded from ~9.5x to ~12.6x) rather than estimate revisions, which have been flat. This suggests the market is re-rating the stock on improved sentiment around the turnaround narrative, not on fundamental earnings upgrades — making the Q2 print a critical test of whether the re-rating is justified.

KHC vs. XLP vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (May 6, 2026). Base = 100 at May 6, 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Key Events Marked on Chart:

Performance Summary (May 6 – August 4, 2026): KHC +15.2% | XLP +1.3% | S&P 500 +5.1%. KHC’s outperformance is driven by multiple expansion (NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from ~8.4x to ~9.8x; NTM P/E from ~9.5x to ~12.6x) rather than estimate revisions. Source: Yahoo Finance Stock Price Data; Visible Alpha Stock Performance Decomposition.

6. Peer Commentary Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 (April–June 2026) and post-Q1 2026 earnings calls paints a consistent picture: the U.S. consumer remains under pressure, category volumes are soft, and inflation (particularly energy, resins, and packaging) is running above historical norms. However, peers with strong brand investment and innovation are gaining share — a positive read-through for KHC’s $600M investment thesis. The most relevant read-throughs are from General Mills (July 1), Conagra (July 15), Mondelez (July 28), and Hershey (July 30).

Eligibility Note: Only commentary about current-quarter (Q2 2026, April–June 2026) conditions or forward-looking statements made after KHC’s Q1 2026 earnings (May 6, 2026) is included. Backward-looking commentary about peers’ own prior-quarter results (e.g., SJM’s Q4 FY2026 results for the period ending April 2026, which is SJM’s own historical quarter) is excluded where it does not provide read-through to KHC’s Q2 2026 period.

General Mills (GIS) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call, July 1, 2026

Relevance: GIS’s fiscal Q4 ended May 2026 and their FY2027 guidance covers June 2026 onward — directly overlapping with KHC’s Q2 2026 (April–June 2026).

Conagra Brands (CAG) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call, July 15, 2026

Relevance: CAG’s FY2027 began June 1, 2026, making their forward guidance directly applicable to KHC’s Q2 2026 and H2 2026 environment. CAG’s call occurred after KHC’s Q2 2026 quarter closed.

Campbell’s Company (CPB) — Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call, June 8, 2026

Relevance: CPB’s fiscal Q3 ended April 2026 and their Q4 guidance covers May–July 2026, overlapping with KHC’s Q2 2026.

Mondelez International (MDLZ) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 28, 2026

Relevance: MDLZ’s Q2 2026 is the same calendar quarter as KHC’s Q2 2026 (April–June 2026). MDLZ reported first, providing a direct read-through.

Hershey Company (HSY) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 30, 2026

Relevance: HSY’s Q2 2026 is the same calendar quarter as KHC’s Q2 2026. HSY reported two days before KHC’s earnings call.

J.M. Smucker (SJM) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call, June 9, 2026

Relevance: SJM’s fiscal Q4 ended April 2026. Their FY2027 guidance (starting May 2026) covers the period overlapping with KHC’s Q2 2026. Note: SJM’s own Q4 FY2026 results (backward-looking to their own quarter) are excluded; only forward-looking commentary about the current environment is included.

Peer Commentary Summary Table

Peer

Call Date

Key Read-Through for KHC Q2 2026

Signal

General Mills (GIS)

July 1, 2026

Category volumes slowed ~1 pp exiting May; consumer buying more on promo; rational pricing environment; 4-5% inflation for FY2027

Mixed

Conagra (CAG)

July 15, 2026

Volumes down mid-single digits; consumer very value conscious; 5-6% inflation; dividend cut signals sector financial stress

Negative

Mondelez (MDLZ)

July 28, 2026

North America volume positive and accelerating in Q2 2026; gained share in all NA categories; rational pricing; strong H2 outlook

Positive

Hershey (HSY)

July 30, 2026

SNAP impact in line with plan; retailer inventory normalizing in Q2; elasticities slightly better than expected; volume recovery expected

Positive

Campbell’s (CPB)

June 8, 2026

5-6% inflation if oil stays at $100/bbl; packaging, logistics, aluminum elevated; at-home cooking trend resilient; promo ROI discipline improving

Mixed

J.M. Smucker (SJM)

June 9, 2026

Consumer cautious; packaging/logistics inflation from Middle East; promotional environment rational; no unusual competitive activity

Mixed

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most material post-Q1 development is the departure of the Chief Omnichannel Sales Officer (Cory Onell, effective June 30, 2026) — a senior commercial leader exiting mid-turnaround raises execution risk questions at a critical juncture. The €1 billion Eurobond issuance (May 2026) is a positive for long-term interest expense savings. The bylaws amendment (July 2026) is governance-related and has limited investment implications.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: The most notable insider signal is CEO Steve Cahillane’s open-market purchase of 213,106 shares on May 12, 2026 — six days after the Q1 earnings print — a strong vote of confidence in the turnaround at a price of approximately $23.37/share. The sale by Chief Growth Officer Diana Frost (18,502 shares, June 18, 2026) is a discretionary open-market sale with no 10b5-1 plan, which warrants monitoring but is not alarming given the CEO’s concurrent buying signal.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Shares

Transaction Date

Filing Date

Note

Steven A. Cahillane

Chief Executive Officer & Director

Open Market Buy

213,106 shares

May 12, 2026

May 13, 2026

Discretionary open-market purchase; no 10b5-1 plan; 6 days post Q1 earnings; strong conviction signal at ~$23.37/share; post-purchase holdings: 635,160 shares

Diana Frost

Global Chief Growth Officer

Open Market Sale

18,502 shares

June 18, 2026

June 22, 2026

Discretionary open-market sale; no 10b5-1 plan; same day as Onell departure announcement; post-sale holdings: 102,667 shares; warrants monitoring given timing

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Transaction dates are execution dates (when trades were executed); filing dates are when Form 4s were disclosed to the SEC. The CEO’s purchase (transaction date May 12, 2026; filed May 13, 2026) and the CGO’s sale (transaction date June 18, 2026; filed June 22, 2026) are both open-market transactions with no 10b5-1 plan designation.

Analysis: The CEO’s purchase of 213,106 shares at approximately $23.37/share represents a ~$5M personal investment made six days after the Q1 earnings print — one of the strongest insider buy signals in recent KHC history. This is a direct, discretionary bet on the turnaround at a price well below current levels (~$26.64 as of August 4, 2026). The CGO’s sale of 18,502 shares on June 18, 2026 — the same day as the Onell departure announcement — is worth noting, though the size is modest relative to her remaining 102,667-share position. No other insider transactions were filed in the May 6 – August 4, 2026 window.

9. Risks & What Matters on the Call

Key Takeaway: The Q2 print is a binary test of the turnaround narrative: if market share data confirms the Q1 trajectory held through June, the stock has room to re-rate further. If SNAP and category softness overwhelmed the investment-driven momentum, the H2 outlook becomes more uncertain. The call will be dominated by three questions: share trajectory, investment deployment pace, and the Onell succession plan.

What Matters Most on the Call

  1. Market Share Trajectory Data (Most Important): Management has been providing real-time share data on calls (e.g., “58% of portfolio holding/gaining share in March”). The Q2 call will likely include an update on the April–June share trajectory. A continuation of the improvement trend (toward 70%+ holding/gaining share) would be the single most important positive signal. A reversal would be the most important negative.
  2. Q2 Organic Net Sales vs. Guide (-3% to -5%): Consensus is at -3.6%, within the guide range. A beat (e.g., -2% to -3%) would signal that the Easter timing headwind was smaller than feared and/or that the investment plan is driving incremental volume. A miss (worse than -5%) would raise questions about whether the SNAP headwind was larger than modeled.
  3. Gross Margin Performance: Q1 gross margin benefited from ~40-50 bps of non-recurring items (excess byproduct sales, deferred factory maintenance). Q2 should show a cleaner read on the underlying margin trajectory. Management guided to -25 to -75 bps for the full year; Q2 will be a key data point on whether that range is achievable given energy/resin inflation.
  4. Onell Succession & Commercial Execution: The departure of the Chief Omnichannel Sales Officer effective June 30, 2026 will be a key topic. Management will need to address who is leading the omnichannel sales function and whether the departure affects the $600M investment deployment plan (which includes significant sales headcount investment).
  5. H2 2026 Guidance Confirmation or Revision: Management maintained full-year guidance after Q1 despite the beat. The key question is whether they will raise guidance after Q2 (if the beat is sustained) or maintain/lower it (if Q2 is in line with the low end of the guide). A guidance raise would be a significant positive catalyst.
  6. Indonesia Lap Timing: Management guided that Indonesia’s ~70 bps headwind to top-line growth would “fully lap in the second half of 2026.” Q2 will be the last quarter with a meaningful Indonesia drag. Confirmation that the lap is on track would be a positive signal for H2 organic growth.
  7. Investment Deployment Pace: Management stated on the Q1 call that “the vast majority of the $600M is still dry powder” as of May 6. Q2 will show how much has been deployed and whether early returns justify the investment. Any commentary about going above $600M (as flagged at the Deutsche Bank conference) would be a positive signal.

Key Risks

Risk

Direction

Description

Probability

SNAP Headwind Larger Than Modeled

Downside

Management guided ~100 bps SNAP headwind for Q2. If SNAP benefit reductions were larger or faster than modeled, organic growth could miss the -5% floor of guidance. HSY noted SNAP was “in line with plan” — a modest positive read-through.

Medium

Energy/Resin Inflation Accelerating

Downside

KHC is hedged on resins through mid-Q3. If Middle East conflict keeps oil at ~$100/bbl, Q3 gross margin could face 200+ bps headwind. Multiple peers (CPB, GIS, SJM) flagged this risk.

Medium-High

Commercial Execution Risk Post-Onell

Downside

Departure of Chief Omnichannel Sales Officer mid-turnaround creates execution risk in the sales force investment, which is a key component of the $600M plan. Asia EM leadership also affected.

Medium

Share Recovery Stalls in Q2

Downside

Q1 share recovery was partly driven by Easter timing and winter storm pantry loading. If the underlying share trajectory did not hold through April-June, the turnaround narrative loses credibility.

Medium

Investment Returns Exceed Expectations

Upside

If early $600M investment returns are strong enough to justify going above the base commitment (as flagged at Deutsche Bank conference), management could raise guidance or signal accelerated volume recovery.

Medium

Indonesia Lap Ahead of Schedule

Upside

If Indonesia’s ~70 bps headwind laps faster than expected, H2 organic growth could surprise to the upside. Management guided for full lap in H2 2026.

Low-Medium

Eurobond Interest Savings Accelerate

Upside

The €1B Eurobond issuance (May 2026) and potential prepayment of 2027 debt maturities could reduce interest expense below the ~$920M FY2026 guide, providing EPS upside.

Low-Medium

Appendix: Data Sources & Citations

Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI consensus estimates and actuals sourced from Visible Alpha. Net Sales, Organic Growth (%), EPS (Diluted Operating), Gross Profit (Operating), Operating Income (Operating) for KHC. Consensus as of August 4, 2026; baseline estimates as of May 8, 2026 (5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings). Revision history sourced from Visible Alpha weekly revision history table (May 8 – August 4, 2026).

Stock Price Data — KHC, XLP, and SPY daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance. Period: May 6, 2026 – August 5, 2026. Indexed to 100 at May 6, 2026 close.

SEC Form 4 Filings — Insider transaction data from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings database. CEO Cahillane purchase: Form 4 filed May 13, 2026 (transaction date May 12, 2026). CGO Frost sale: Form 4 filed June 22, 2026 (transaction date June 18, 2026).

KHC Corporate Filings & Transcripts — Q1 2026 Earnings Release (May 6, 2026); Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (May 6, 2026); 8-K filings: Eurobond underwriting agreement (May 12, 2026), Debt tender offer (May 7, 2026), Onell departure (June 18, 2026), Bylaws amendment (July 27, 2026); Deutsche Bank conference press release (May 26, 2026).

Peer Earnings Transcripts & Releases — General Mills Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (July 1, 2026); Conagra Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (July 15, 2026); Campbell’s Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call (June 8, 2026); Mondelez Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 28, 2026); Hershey Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026); J.M. Smucker Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (June 9, 2026).

KHC Company Knowledge Base — Implied internal company summary, key KPIs, commentary evolution, and valuation data for KHC as of August 4, 2026.