Company | The Kraft Heinz Company |
Ticker | KHC (Nasdaq) |
Upcoming Earnings Date | August 5, 2026 (Q2 2026 Earnings Call, 9:00 AM ET) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 28, 2026) |
Preparation Date | August 4, 2026 |
Sector ETF Benchmark | XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR) |
Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 is a low bar — management explicitly guided organic net sales to -3% to -5% for the quarter, driven by the Easter timing shift and SNAP headwinds, and consensus has barely moved since the Q1 print. The biggest swing factor is whether the market share recovery trajectory that accelerated sharply through March held into April-June, or whether SNAP and category softness overwhelmed the investment-driven momentum.
Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for KHC is deliberately set low: management guided organic net sales to -3% to -5% on the Q1 call, citing the Easter timing shift (which pulled volume into Q1) and a ~100 bps SNAP headwind beginning in Q2. Consensus organic growth sits at -3.6% and adjusted EPS at $0.53, both essentially unchanged since the Q1 print on May 6 — a sign that the Street has anchored to guidance rather than extrapolating Q1 momentum. Management’s posture was cautiously optimistic but deliberately conservative: they maintained full-year guidance despite a meaningful Q1 beat, explicitly flagging that the vast majority of the $600M investment plan remains undeployed and will be spent through the remainder of the year. The stock has rallied ~15% since the Q1 print (from $23.07 to ~$26.64 as of August 5), outperforming XLP, suggesting the market has partially priced in stabilization — but the multiple remains deeply discounted at ~12.6x NTM P/E vs. a historical average near 17x, leaving room for re-rating if share trends confirm. The key wildcard is the departure of Cory Onell (Chief Omnichannel Sales & Asia Emerging Markets Officer, effective June 30, 2026) — a senior commercial leader exiting mid-turnaround raises execution risk questions that management will need to address directly on the call. Additionally, energy and resin inflation spiking due to Middle East conflict could pressure Q3 margins, as KHC’s resin hedges only extend through mid-Q3.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low bar heading into Q2 — organic net sales growth is the bigger swing factor, with the Street modeling -3.6% vs. management’s own -3% to -5% guide. Adjusted EPS at $0.53 is also well below Q2 2025’s $0.69 actual, reflecting the full weight of the $600M investment plan hitting the P&L. A beat on organic growth or gross margin would be the positive surprise.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter) | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year Period) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change (Est. vs. PY) | Guidance (FY 2026) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Net Sales ($B) | $6.047B | $6.352B | $6.120B | -3.7% | FY: ~$24.5B implied | In line with FY guide |
Organic Net Sales Growth (%) | -0.4% | -2.0% | -3.6% | -1.6 pp vs. PY | FY: -1.5% to -3.5% | Within guide range |
Adj. EPS (Diluted, Operating) | $0.58 | $0.69 | $0.53 | -23.2% | FY: $1.98–$2.10 | ~$0.53 implies ~25% of FY midpoint |
Adj. Gross Profit ($B) | $2.064B | $2.168B | $2.051B | -5.4% | Margin: -25 to -75 bps YoY | Implies ~33.5% margin |
Adj. Operating Income ($B) | $1.058B | $1.276B | $1.034B | -19.0% | FY: -14% to -18% CC | Within guide range |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Net Sales, Organic Growth, EPS (Diluted Operating), Gross Profit (Operating), Operating Income (Operating) sourced from Visible Alpha consensus as of August 4, 2026. Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 actuals from Visible Alpha reported figures. FY 2026 guidance from KHC Q1 2026 earnings release (May 6, 2026).
Quarter | KPI | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | Organic Growth | -0.4% | -2.8% | +2.4 pp | Beat |
Q1 2026 | Adj. EPS | $0.58 | $0.50 | +16.0% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | Organic Growth | -4.2% | -3.9% | -0.3 pp | Miss |
Q4 2025 | Adj. EPS | $0.67 | $0.61 | +9.8% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | Organic Growth | -2.5% | -2.2% | -0.3 pp | Miss |
Q3 2025 | Adj. EPS | $0.61 | $0.58 | +5.2% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | Organic Growth | -2.0% | -3.0% | +1.0 pp | Beat |
Q2 2025 | Adj. EPS | $0.69 | $0.64 | +7.8% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | Organic Growth | -4.7% | -4.2% | -0.5 pp | Miss |
Q1 2025 | Adj. EPS | $0.62 | $0.61 | +1.6% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | Organic Growth | -3.1% | -2.4% | -0.7 pp | Miss |
Q4 2024 | Adj. EPS | $0.84 | $0.78 | +7.7% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | Organic Growth | -2.2% | -1.7% | -0.5 pp | Miss |
Q3 2024 | Adj. EPS | $0.75 | $0.74 | +1.4% | Beat |
Pattern: KHC has beaten Adj. EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, but organic net sales growth has missed in 5 of the last 8 quarters — the EPS beats are driven by cost discipline and below-the-line items, not top-line outperformance. The Q1 2026 organic growth beat (+2.4 pp) was the largest in recent history, though management attributed a portion to Easter timing and winter storm pantry loading. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call on May 6, 2026 — management maintained all full-year metrics despite the Q1 beat, citing the volatile macro environment and the bulk of the $600M investment plan still to be deployed. The only post-earnings development is the departure of the Chief Omnichannel Sales Officer (June 18, 2026), which is a tone-negative signal for commercial execution.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 6, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Organic Net Sales Growth (FY 2026) | -1.5% to -3.5% vs. prior year (incl. ~100 bps SNAP headwind) | Unchanged | -1.95% | Maintained despite Q1 beat; management cited Easter timing and winter storms as transitory tailwinds |
CC Adj. Operating Income (FY 2026) | Down 14% to 18% vs. prior year | Unchanged | ~$4.0B | Includes ~$600M incremental investment and ~300 bps headwind from lapping lower variable comp in 2025 |
Adj. Gross Profit Margin (FY 2026) | Down 25–75 bps vs. prior year | Unchanged | N/A — not tracked separately in VA | Inflation in energy/resins flagged as upside risk; hedged through mid-Q3 on resins |
Adj. EPS (FY 2026) | $1.98–$2.10 | Unchanged | $2.07 | Consensus at midpoint of range; effective tax rate ~25%; interest expense ~$920M |
Free Cash Flow Conversion (FY 2026) | ~100% | Unchanged | N/A | Q1 FCF was $0.8B (+58.9% YoY); H2 expected lower due to stepped-up investment spending |
Q2 2026 Organic Net Sales (Specific Quarter Guide) | -3% to -5% (stated on Q1 call) | Unchanged | -3.6% | Easter shift, SNAP headwind, category softness; partially offset by Away From Home and EM improvement |
Source: KHC Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Earnings Call Transcript (May 6, 2026). Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data for current consensus figures.
Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 2026 EPS consensus moved only from $0.523 to $0.528 (+0.9%) and net sales from $6.091B to $6.120B (+0.5%) over the 12 weeks since May 8. The FY 2026 EPS consensus of $2.07 sits at the midpoint of management’s $1.98–$2.10 guide, suggesting the Street is not pricing in either a meaningful beat or miss. The lack of revision activity is itself a signal: the market is waiting for Q2 data to determine whether Q1’s share recovery was durable.
KPI (Period) | Estimate (May 8, 2026 — 5 Days Post Q1 Print) | Current Consensus (Aug 4, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call, May 6) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Adj. EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.523 | $0.528 | +0.9% | No specific Q2 EPS guide | Unchanged | N/A | N/A |
Adj. EPS — FY 2026 | $2.064 | $2.070 | +0.3% | $1.98–$2.10 ($2.04 midpoint) | Unchanged | No change | +1.5% above midpoint |
Net Sales — Q2 2026 | $6.091B | $6.120B | +0.5% | No specific Q2 net sales guide | Unchanged | N/A | N/A |
Net Sales — FY 2026 | $24.453B | $24.491B | +0.2% | Organic: -1.5% to -3.5% | Unchanged | No change | Within guide range |
Organic Growth — Q2 2026 | -4.08% | -3.57% | +0.5 pp (less negative) | -3% to -5% | Unchanged | No change | Within guide range; at better end |
Organic Growth — FY 2026 | -2.14% | -1.95% | +0.2 pp (less negative) | -1.5% to -3.5% | Unchanged | No change | At better end of guide range |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Baseline estimates as of May 8, 2026 (5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings). Current consensus as of August 4, 2026. Revision history sourced from Visible Alpha revision history table (weekly frequency, May 8 – August 4, 2026).
Commentary: The near-zero revision activity since the Q1 print is notable — it reflects the Street’s view that Q1 was a timing-aided beat and that Q2 will look more like management’s guide. The modest drift toward the better end of the organic growth range (from -4.08% to -3.57% for Q2) suggests some analysts are giving credit to the underlying share recovery momentum, but the move is too small to signal conviction. The key question for the print is whether the share trajectory data (which management has been reporting in real-time) justifies a more meaningful upward revision to the H2 outlook.
Key Takeaway: KHC has rallied ~15% since the Q1 2026 earnings print (May 6, 2026), significantly outperforming both XLP (+1.3%) and the S&P 500 (+5.1%) over the same period. The outperformance is driven almost entirely by multiple expansion (NTM P/E expanded from ~9.5x to ~12.6x) rather than estimate revisions, which have been flat. This suggests the market is re-rating the stock on improved sentiment around the turnaround narrative, not on fundamental earnings upgrades — making the Q2 print a critical test of whether the re-rating is justified.
KHC vs. XLP vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (May 6, 2026). Base = 100 at May 6, 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.
Key Events Marked on Chart:
Performance Summary (May 6 – August 4, 2026): KHC +15.2% | XLP +1.3% | S&P 500 +5.1%. KHC’s outperformance is driven by multiple expansion (NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from ~8.4x to ~9.8x; NTM P/E from ~9.5x to ~12.6x) rather than estimate revisions. Source: Yahoo Finance Stock Price Data; Visible Alpha Stock Performance Decomposition.
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 (April–June 2026) and post-Q1 2026 earnings calls paints a consistent picture: the U.S. consumer remains under pressure, category volumes are soft, and inflation (particularly energy, resins, and packaging) is running above historical norms. However, peers with strong brand investment and innovation are gaining share — a positive read-through for KHC’s $600M investment thesis. The most relevant read-throughs are from General Mills (July 1), Conagra (July 15), Mondelez (July 28), and Hershey (July 30).
Eligibility Note: Only commentary about current-quarter (Q2 2026, April–June 2026) conditions or forward-looking statements made after KHC’s Q1 2026 earnings (May 6, 2026) is included. Backward-looking commentary about peers’ own prior-quarter results (e.g., SJM’s Q4 FY2026 results for the period ending April 2026, which is SJM’s own historical quarter) is excluded where it does not provide read-through to KHC’s Q2 2026 period.
Relevance: GIS’s fiscal Q4 ended May 2026 and their FY2027 guidance covers June 2026 onward — directly overlapping with KHC’s Q2 2026 (April–June 2026).
Relevance: CAG’s FY2027 began June 1, 2026, making their forward guidance directly applicable to KHC’s Q2 2026 and H2 2026 environment. CAG’s call occurred after KHC’s Q2 2026 quarter closed.
Relevance: CPB’s fiscal Q3 ended April 2026 and their Q4 guidance covers May–July 2026, overlapping with KHC’s Q2 2026.
Relevance: MDLZ’s Q2 2026 is the same calendar quarter as KHC’s Q2 2026 (April–June 2026). MDLZ reported first, providing a direct read-through.
Relevance: HSY’s Q2 2026 is the same calendar quarter as KHC’s Q2 2026. HSY reported two days before KHC’s earnings call.
Relevance: SJM’s fiscal Q4 ended April 2026. Their FY2027 guidance (starting May 2026) covers the period overlapping with KHC’s Q2 2026. Note: SJM’s own Q4 FY2026 results (backward-looking to their own quarter) are excluded; only forward-looking commentary about the current environment is included.
Peer | Call Date | Key Read-Through for KHC Q2 2026 | Signal |
General Mills (GIS) | July 1, 2026 | Category volumes slowed ~1 pp exiting May; consumer buying more on promo; rational pricing environment; 4-5% inflation for FY2027 | Mixed |
Conagra (CAG) | July 15, 2026 | Volumes down mid-single digits; consumer very value conscious; 5-6% inflation; dividend cut signals sector financial stress | Negative |
Mondelez (MDLZ) | July 28, 2026 | North America volume positive and accelerating in Q2 2026; gained share in all NA categories; rational pricing; strong H2 outlook | Positive |
Hershey (HSY) | July 30, 2026 | SNAP impact in line with plan; retailer inventory normalizing in Q2; elasticities slightly better than expected; volume recovery expected | Positive |
Campbell’s (CPB) | June 8, 2026 | 5-6% inflation if oil stays at $100/bbl; packaging, logistics, aluminum elevated; at-home cooking trend resilient; promo ROI discipline improving | Mixed |
J.M. Smucker (SJM) | June 9, 2026 | Consumer cautious; packaging/logistics inflation from Middle East; promotional environment rational; no unusual competitive activity | Mixed |
Key Takeaway: The most material post-Q1 development is the departure of the Chief Omnichannel Sales Officer (Cory Onell, effective June 30, 2026) — a senior commercial leader exiting mid-turnaround raises execution risk questions at a critical juncture. The €1 billion Eurobond issuance (May 2026) is a positive for long-term interest expense savings. The bylaws amendment (July 2026) is governance-related and has limited investment implications.
Key Takeaway: The most notable insider signal is CEO Steve Cahillane’s open-market purchase of 213,106 shares on May 12, 2026 — six days after the Q1 earnings print — a strong vote of confidence in the turnaround at a price of approximately $23.37/share. The sale by Chief Growth Officer Diana Frost (18,502 shares, June 18, 2026) is a discretionary open-market sale with no 10b5-1 plan, which warrants monitoring but is not alarming given the CEO’s concurrent buying signal.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Transaction Date | Filing Date | Note |
Steven A. Cahillane | Chief Executive Officer & Director | Open Market Buy | 213,106 shares | May 12, 2026 | May 13, 2026 | Discretionary open-market purchase; no 10b5-1 plan; 6 days post Q1 earnings; strong conviction signal at ~$23.37/share; post-purchase holdings: 635,160 shares |
Diana Frost | Global Chief Growth Officer | Open Market Sale | 18,502 shares | June 18, 2026 | June 22, 2026 | Discretionary open-market sale; no 10b5-1 plan; same day as Onell departure announcement; post-sale holdings: 102,667 shares; warrants monitoring given timing |
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Transaction dates are execution dates (when trades were executed); filing dates are when Form 4s were disclosed to the SEC. The CEO’s purchase (transaction date May 12, 2026; filed May 13, 2026) and the CGO’s sale (transaction date June 18, 2026; filed June 22, 2026) are both open-market transactions with no 10b5-1 plan designation.
Analysis: The CEO’s purchase of 213,106 shares at approximately $23.37/share represents a ~$5M personal investment made six days after the Q1 earnings print — one of the strongest insider buy signals in recent KHC history. This is a direct, discretionary bet on the turnaround at a price well below current levels (~$26.64 as of August 4, 2026). The CGO’s sale of 18,502 shares on June 18, 2026 — the same day as the Onell departure announcement — is worth noting, though the size is modest relative to her remaining 102,667-share position. No other insider transactions were filed in the May 6 – August 4, 2026 window.
Key Takeaway: The Q2 print is a binary test of the turnaround narrative: if market share data confirms the Q1 trajectory held through June, the stock has room to re-rate further. If SNAP and category softness overwhelmed the investment-driven momentum, the H2 outlook becomes more uncertain. The call will be dominated by three questions: share trajectory, investment deployment pace, and the Onell succession plan.
Risk | Direction | Description | Probability |
SNAP Headwind Larger Than Modeled | Downside | Management guided ~100 bps SNAP headwind for Q2. If SNAP benefit reductions were larger or faster than modeled, organic growth could miss the -5% floor of guidance. HSY noted SNAP was “in line with plan” — a modest positive read-through. | Medium |
Energy/Resin Inflation Accelerating | Downside | KHC is hedged on resins through mid-Q3. If Middle East conflict keeps oil at ~$100/bbl, Q3 gross margin could face 200+ bps headwind. Multiple peers (CPB, GIS, SJM) flagged this risk. | Medium-High |
Commercial Execution Risk Post-Onell | Downside | Departure of Chief Omnichannel Sales Officer mid-turnaround creates execution risk in the sales force investment, which is a key component of the $600M plan. Asia EM leadership also affected. | Medium |
Share Recovery Stalls in Q2 | Downside | Q1 share recovery was partly driven by Easter timing and winter storm pantry loading. If the underlying share trajectory did not hold through April-June, the turnaround narrative loses credibility. | Medium |
Investment Returns Exceed Expectations | Upside | If early $600M investment returns are strong enough to justify going above the base commitment (as flagged at Deutsche Bank conference), management could raise guidance or signal accelerated volume recovery. | Medium |
Indonesia Lap Ahead of Schedule | Upside | If Indonesia’s ~70 bps headwind laps faster than expected, H2 organic growth could surprise to the upside. Management guided for full lap in H2 2026. | Low-Medium |
Eurobond Interest Savings Accelerate | Upside | The €1B Eurobond issuance (May 2026) and potential prepayment of 2027 debt maturities could reduce interest expense below the ~$920M FY2026 guide, providing EPS upside. | Low-Medium |
Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI consensus estimates and actuals sourced from Visible Alpha. Net Sales, Organic Growth (%), EPS (Diluted Operating), Gross Profit (Operating), Operating Income (Operating) for KHC. Consensus as of August 4, 2026; baseline estimates as of May 8, 2026 (5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings). Revision history sourced from Visible Alpha weekly revision history table (May 8 – August 4, 2026).
Stock Price Data — KHC, XLP, and SPY daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance. Period: May 6, 2026 – August 5, 2026. Indexed to 100 at May 6, 2026 close.
SEC Form 4 Filings — Insider transaction data from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings database. CEO Cahillane purchase: Form 4 filed May 13, 2026 (transaction date May 12, 2026). CGO Frost sale: Form 4 filed June 22, 2026 (transaction date June 18, 2026).
KHC Corporate Filings & Transcripts — Q1 2026 Earnings Release (May 6, 2026); Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (May 6, 2026); 8-K filings: Eurobond underwriting agreement (May 12, 2026), Debt tender offer (May 7, 2026), Onell departure (June 18, 2026), Bylaws amendment (July 27, 2026); Deutsche Bank conference press release (May 26, 2026).
Peer Earnings Transcripts & Releases — General Mills Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (July 1, 2026); Conagra Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (July 15, 2026); Campbell’s Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call (June 8, 2026); Mondelez Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 28, 2026); Hershey Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026); J.M. Smucker Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (June 9, 2026).
KHC Company Knowledge Base — Implied internal company summary, key KPIs, commentary evolution, and valuation data for KHC as of August 4, 2026.