Report Date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026, before market open | Call: 8:30 AM ET
Kimco Realty, the largest grocery-anchored open-air shopping center REIT in the U.S., reports second-quarter 2026 results tomorrow morning. As of quarter-end Q1, the company owned interests in 565 U.S. shopping centers and mixed-use assets totaling roughly 100 million square feet, and it enters this print carrying strong momentum: a record leasing pipeline, tightening guidance, and one of the strongest balance sheets in its history.
The stock has been a solid, if unspectacular, performer — KIM shares are up roughly 23% over the past year (from ~$20.74 to ~$25.42), broadly in line with the shopping-center REIT group (Brixmor +24%, Regency +14%) but trailing mall/higher-growth names like Federal Realty (+37%) and Simon Property Group (+43%). Shares have pulled back modestly from a late-July high near $26.38 to ~$25.42 heading into the print, alongside broader market volatility.
Kimco delivered a clean beat-and-raise quarter in Q1: - FFO of $0.46/share, up 4.5% year-over-year, beating consensus by a penny - Same-property NOI growth of +1.7%, which management explicitly flagged as the low point for the year as the company lapped prior-year rent losses from JOANN's, Party City, Big Lots and Rite Aid bankruptcies - Blended cash rent spreads of 11.3% (new leases +23.8%), extending a 15-year streak of positive leasing spreads - A record signed-not-open (SNO) pipeline of $77 million in annual base rent (410 bps of leased-vs-economic occupancy spread), which management called "the single clearest indicator of where our earnings are headed" - Credit loss of just 52 bps of rental revenue — much better than feared given no meaningful bankruptcy activity in the quarter - Pro-rata leased occupancy of 96.3%, anchor occupancy of 97.9%, and small-shop occupancy of 92.5% (all up year-over-year)
Management raised full-year 2026 FFO guidance to $1.81–$1.84 (from $1.80–$1.84), lifted same-property NOI growth guidance to +2.8% to +3.5% (from +2.5% to +3.5%), and tightened the credit-loss assumption to 65–90 bps (from 75–100 bps).
1. Consensus setup — a low bar, again. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 FFO has sat unchanged at $0.46/share for more than three months, with revenue expected near $545 million (+3.8% YoY). Kimco has topped or matched the consensus FFO estimate in each of the last four quarters (three beats, one in-line, average beat of 1.72%), and currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with a positive Earnings ESP.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM's quarterly revenues stands at $545 million, implying 3.8% growth from the prior-year reported number. The estimate for net revenues from rental properties stands at $540 million, indicating a 3.6% increase year over year. Notably, Kimco's FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and met in the remaining period over the preceding four quarters, with the average beat being 1.72%. One offsetting factor analysts are modeling: leased occupancy is expected to decrease 40 basis points sequentially to 95.9% in the quarter, and interest expense is expected to rise 3.4% year-over-year.
2. Same-site NOI acceleration. Management guided explicitly that Q1 marked the trough and that same-property NOI growth should accelerate through the balance of the year as the SNO pipeline converts to cash rent. On the Q1 call, COO David Jamieson said projected cash-flow rent from 2026 SNO commencements had already increased to $31 million (from an original $28.5 million budget), with about $13 million realized in Q1 and another $18 million-plus expected across Q2–Q4. Investors will want to see this ramp showing up in the Q2 numbers, and whether management further raises the full-year same-property NOI outlook.
3. Credit loss / tenant health. Q1's 52 bps of credit loss came in well below the initial full-year guide, driven by an unusually clean bankruptcy environment. Watch for commentary on any new retailer distress (management flagged a small, immaterial Painted Tree bankruptcy exposure on the Q1 call) and whether the tightened 65–90 bps full-year range holds or gets revised further given a resilient necessity/discount/off-price tenant base.
4. Capital markets activity. Since the Q1 print, Kimco has been active: - Recast its $2.0 billion unsecured revolver (expandable to $2.75 billion) at SOFR+63.5 bps with a March 2030 maturity - Launched a $750 million commercial paper program - In mid-June, issued $600 million of 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2031 (upsized with a $75 million overallotment), with an initial exchange price of approximately $32.36/share — proceeds earmarked for share repurchases, debt repayment/refinancing, and funding acquisitions, investments and redevelopment
With net debt-to-EBITDA at 5.2x (5.5x look-through including JV debt/preferred) — the best levels the company has reported — and an A-/A3 credit rating, balance sheet strength should remain a differentiator. Expect questions on 2H26 refinancing plans (the bulk of 2026 maturities fall in the second half) and whether the exchangeable notes proceeds are being deployed toward buybacks given KIM's persistent valuation discount.
5. Capital recycling and the public/private valuation gap. Transaction volume was intentionally light in Q1, with management guiding to a second-half-weighted pickup toward the full-year target of $300–500 million in net-neutral acquisitions/dispositions and $75–125 million in structured investments. A key talking point from the Q1 call was the Ares Management acquisition of Whitestone REIT for ~$1.7 billion in cash, cited by CIO Ross Cooper as evidence of "how aggressively private capital is pursuing our sector" and of the disconnect between private and public valuations for grocery-anchored retail. CEO Conor Flynn noted Kimco trades at an implied cap rate near 6.8% and an FFO yield near 7.7% — a real discount to intrinsic value that management is trying to close through disciplined recycling, balance sheet strength and continued earnings growth.
6. Analyst sentiment and price targets. Kimco currently has a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating based on 10 "Strong Buy" ratings and 15 "Holds," slightly more bullish than three months ago when there were nine "Strong Buy" ratings. On July 9, UBS analyst Michael Goldsmith raised Kimco Realty's price target to $29 and maintained a "Buy" rating. The mean price target of $26.67 represents roughly a 4.7% premium to current price levels, while the Street-high target of $31 implies about 21.7% upside.
Consensus is set for another “meets-or-slightly-beats” quarter ($0.46 FFO/share, ~$545 million revenue), with the more important storylines being (1) confirmation that same-property NOI growth is accelerating as guided, (2) continued benign credit-loss trends, (3) progress converting the record SNO pipeline into cash rent, and (4) any incremental color on capital deployment (buybacks vs. acquisitions) following the June exchangeable notes raise. Given a fairly low bar and a management team that has consistently executed and modestly raised guidance through 2026, the setup skews constructive, though the market will be watching closely for any signs of consumer-driven credit deterioration or a slower-than-expected transaction/recycling cadence in the back half of the year.