| LLY |
Guide |
FY2026 revenue guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$85B (midpoint) vs. cons ~$84B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LLY |
Guide |
FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$37.5 midpoint vs. cons ~$36.5 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LLY |
Guide |
Foundayo (orforglipron) first-full-quarter launch revenue |
UNKNOWN |
pred ~$0.4B vs. cons ~$0.4B (Q2 2026); qualitative launch read pre-Q3 DTC push |
LOW |
| LLY |
Guide |
U.S. tirzepatide net price / low-to-mid-teens FY price headwind |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~ -12% price vs. cons ~ -12% (FY2026); swing factor on multiple |
MEDIUM |
| LLY |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| LLY |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+1.5% (FADE) |
Expect a beat-and-raise driving an initial pop, but out-period math works against follow-through: a Q2 revenue/EPS beat that is only partly flowed through to a modest FY raise implies an implicit H2 haircut, and low-to-mid-teens price erosion plus IPR&D lumpiness cap upside. With shares still richly valued (~12x fwd revenue) and priced for perfection, the day-1 gain partially gives back over the week. |
LOW |