LLY Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
LLY Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$21.3B vs. cons ~$20.5B MEDIUM
LLY Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$6.10 vs. cons ~$6.55 LOW
LLY Report Mounjaro + Zepbound combined revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$15.2B vs. cons ~$14.0B MEDIUM
LLY Guide FY2026 Revenue guidance BETTER guide ~$86-89B vs. cons ~$84B (FY2026) MEDIUM
LLY Guide FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS guidance LOWER guide ~$33.00-35.50 vs. cons ~$35.50 (FY2026) LOW
LLY Guide FY2026 price/volume mix headwind commentary UNCHANGED guide ~-13% price headwind vs. cons ~-13% (FY2026) MEDIUM
LLY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
LLY Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) Depressed 30/90-day EPS consensus (down ~26%/19%) already reflects fears of heavy acquired-IPR&D/M&A dilution (Orna, Centessa, Kelonia, Ajax, AtaiBeckley), so a revenue/volume beat plus reiterated low-to-mid-teens price headwind should spark an initial relief rally as the bar was set low. But an EPS miss on charges and a lowered (not raised) full-year EPS guide range, alongside no fresh resolution to the capital-allocation overhang (expensive buybacks vs. accelerating BD spend) and the unresolved Novo Nordisk ad litigation, gives analysts room to keep trimming out-period EPS even after a top-line beat — causing the initial pop to fade over the following days rather than follow through. LOW