MCD Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MCD Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$3.40 vs. cons $3.32 MEDIUM
MCD Report Global comparable sales (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~+1.5% vs. cons +1.4% MEDIUM
MCD Report U.S. comparable sales (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~+0.8% vs. cons +0.95% LOW
MCD Guide FY2026 adjusted operating margin guide UNCHANGED guide ~46% vs. cons ~46% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCD Guide Q2 U.S. company-operated (McOpCo) margin LOWER guide ~13% vs. cons ~14.5% (Q2'26 U.S. McOpCo) MEDIUM
MCD Guide 2H2026 U.S. comp / consumer tone LOWER guide ~flat-to-+1% vs. cons ~+2% (2H2026) MEDIUM
MCD Guide FY2026 FX tailwind to EPS BETTER guide ~+$0.25 vs. cons ~+$0.15 (FY2026 EPS) LOW
MCD Guide Refranchising / McOpCo fix detail UNKNOWN guide deferred to Sept 23 vs. cons ~0 change now (Investor Day) MEDIUM
MCD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
MCD Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) EPS beat on FX/buybacks plus post-cyclospora stabilization drives a relief bounce off a washed-out, pre-guided-down setup (stock ~-22% off Feb high). But the beat is low-quality: U.S. comps soft, McOpCo margins pressured by beef/labor, and a cautious 2H consumer tone forces out-period estimate cuts. Out-period math (implicit H2 downgrades) drags the initial pop back toward flat; downside cushioned by extreme washout and the Sept 23 Investor Day forward catalyst, so it fades rather than fully reverses. LOW