| MCD |
Report |
Global comparable sales growth (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~+0.8% vs. cons +1.4% |
MEDIUM |
| MCD |
Report |
U.S. comparable sales growth (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~+0.2% vs. cons +0.95% |
MEDIUM |
| MCD |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$3.22 vs. cons $3.32 |
MEDIUM |
| MCD |
Guide |
FY2026 operating margin guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~44.5% (low end of prior mid-to-high 40s range) vs. cons ~45.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MCD |
Guide |
FY2026 FX tailwind to EPS |
BETTER |
guide ~$0.30 vs. prior guide midpoint $0.25 ($0.20-$0.30 range) (FY2026) |
LOW |
| MCD |
Guide |
Q3/H2 comparable sales trajectory commentary |
LOWER |
guide ~+1.0% vs. cons +1.8% (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MCD |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MCD |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Comp and EPS misses land below an already-lowered bar, but the bigger driver of continued weakness is out-period math: a trimmed FY26 operating margin guide (low end of mid-to-high 40s vs. ~45.5% consensus) and softer Q3 comp framing imply analysts must cut FY26/FY27 EPS estimates even if Q2 headline beats some line items via FX. Persistent beef inflation, McOpCo margin pressure, and sector-wide food-safety traffic softness are structural rather than one-quarter issues, so sell-side revisions likely continue to trend down through the week rather than mean-revert, producing follow-through rather than a fade. |
MEDIUM |