MCD Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MCD Report Global comparable sales BEAT pred ~1.6% vs. cons 1.4% MEDIUM
MCD Report U.S. comparable sales BEAT pred ~1.1% vs. cons 0.95% MEDIUM
MCD Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.36 vs. cons $3.32 MEDIUM
MCD Guide Adjusted operating margin UNCHANGED guide ~46.8% vs. cons 46.8% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCD Guide Net restaurant additions LOWER guide ~2,050 vs. cons 2,100 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCD Guide Capital expenditures UNCHANGED guide ~$3.8B vs. cons $3.8B (FY2026) HIGH
MCD Guide Global comparable sales growth LOWER guide ~2.3% vs. cons 2.7% (2H2026) LOW
MCD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
MCD Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.6% (FADE) A modest comp and EPS beat should support the initial reaction, but implied 2H2026 global comparable-sales growth of ~2.3% vs. consensus 2.7% and net additions of ~2,050 vs. consensus 2,100 would pull out-period estimates lower and cause most of the day-1 gain to fade. MEDIUM