MCD Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MCD Report Global comparable sales MISS pred ~0.3% vs. cons 1.4% MEDIUM
MCD Report U.S. comparable sales MISS pred ~-0.4% vs. cons 0.95% MEDIUM
MCD Report Adjusted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$3.34 vs. cons $3.32 MEDIUM
MCD Guide FY2026 operating margin LOWER guide ~46.0% vs. cons 46.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCD Guide FY2026 net restaurant additions UNCHANGED guide ~2,100 vs. cons 2,100 (FY2026) HIGH
MCD Guide FY2026 foreign-exchange EPS benefit UNCHANGED guide ~$0.25 vs. cons $0.25 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.8% MEDIUM
MCD Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.2% (FADE) A ~0.3% global-comp result versus 1.4% consensus and softer U.S. traffic should create an initial ~-2.8% residual reaction, but ~$3.34 EPS versus $3.32 consensus plus largely intact 2,100-unit and ~$0.25 FX guidance limits out-period estimate cuts; the five-day residual should fade toward ~-1.2% versus a 0.0% neutral residual. MEDIUM