MCD Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MCD Report U.S. Comparable Sales (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~+1.5% vs. cons +0.76% (VA, Aug 3 2026) MEDIUM
MCD Report U.S. Company-Operated Restaurant Margin (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~11.2% vs. cons 11.44% (VA, Aug 3 2026) MEDIUM
MCD Report Operating EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3.40 vs. cons $3.32 (VA, Aug 3 2026) MEDIUM
MCD Guide Operating EPS (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$12.91 reaffirm vs. cons $12.91; implied H2 $6.68 vs. H2 cons $6.36 — mild implicit raise MEDIUM
MCD Guide U.S. Comparable Sales — Q3 tone (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED guide +1-2% cautious vs. implied cons ~+1.5%; food safety industry caution flagged LOW
MCD Guide Refranchising / McOpCo update (FY 2026) UNCHANGED no pre-announcement; Sept Investor Day held as venue; mild negative tone vs. elevated expectations HIGH
MCD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
MCD Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — out-period math mildly positive (FY reaffirm implies H2 above cons $6.36); U.S. margin miss offsets; rising-but-low short base provides minor bid on cover MEDIUM