{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.42 vs. cons $2.33",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Variable investment income (VII, pretax)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$460M vs. cons ~$380M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Group Benefits group life mortality ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~82% vs. cons ~84% (lower = favorable)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 RIS adjusted earnings guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.6\u20131.8B reaffirmed vs. cons ~$1.7B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 direct expense ratio",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~11.9% vs. cons/target 12.1% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 buyback / capital return pace",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred ~$700M vs. cons ~$600M (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted ROE",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "pred ~16.8% vs. cons ~16.5%, top of 15\u201317% target (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even a clean headline/VII beat is largely discounted after a ~20% YTD run into the print (stock ~$96 near highs). The beat is heavily VII-flattered; management continues to guide VII toward a lower normalized run-rate, so out-period math implies forward EPS estimates get trimmed rather than raised despite the Q2 beat. Combined with elevated expectations and quality-of-earnings scrutiny (group non-medical health, RIS spread compression on a flat curve), the likely pattern is a modest sell-the-news day-1 reaction that continues to drift lower over the week as revisions catch up to the normalization narrative.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}