MET Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MET Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.37 vs. cons $2.33 MEDIUM
MET Report Adjusted ROE (Q2 2026, trailing 12mo) MISS pred ~15.6% vs. cons 16.2% MEDIUM
MET Report Group Benefits total benefit ratio (mortality + non-medical health) BEAT pred ~84.0% vs. cons 85.5% (lower ratio = better margin) MEDIUM
MET Guide FY2026 Variable Investment Income guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$1.55B vs. cons $1.6B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MET Guide Q3 2026 Variable Investment Income outlook BETTER guide ~$400M vs. cons $340M (Q3 2026) LOW
MET Guide FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS (post-print revisions) LOWER guide ~$9.80 vs. cons $9.94 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MET Guide 2026 share buyback pace UNCHANGED guide ~$3.0B vs. cons $3.0B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MET Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.8% MEDIUM
MET Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.0% (STABILIZE) The VII shortfall was pre-announced via 8-K on 6/29, so most of the headline growth deceleration is already in consensus; initial day-1 weakness reflects profit-taking after a 35% four-month run into a high bar (ROE dipping off Q1's 17% peak). But because core RIS spread, Group Benefits mortality, and EMEA/Asia volume trends look intact and management reaffirms FY26 targets (VII ~$1.6B, ROE 15-17%, buybacks in line with 2025) plus gives constructive Q3 VII/AI-venture commentary, further out-period estimate cuts should be modest rather than cascading — limiting downside follow-through and allowing partial stabilization by day 5 rather than a full fade. MEDIUM