{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.37 vs. cons $2.33",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted ROE (Q2 2026, trailing 12mo)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~15.6% vs. cons 16.2%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Group Benefits total benefit ratio (mortality + non-medical health)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~84.0% vs. cons 85.5% (lower ratio = better margin)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Variable Investment Income guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.55B vs. cons $1.6B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Variable Investment Income outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$400M vs. cons $340M (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS (post-print revisions)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$9.80 vs. cons $9.94 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 share buyback pace",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.0B vs. cons $3.0B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "The VII shortfall was pre-announced via 8-K on 6/29, so most of the headline growth deceleration is already in consensus; initial day-1 weakness reflects profit-taking after a 35% four-month run into a high bar (ROE dipping off Q1's 17% peak). But because core RIS spread, Group Benefits mortality, and EMEA/Asia volume trends look intact and management reaffirms FY26 targets (VII ~$1.6B, ROE 15-17%, buybacks in line with 2025) plus gives constructive Q3 VII/AI-venture commentary, further out-period estimate cuts should be modest rather than cascading \u2014 limiting downside follow-through and allowing partial stabilization by day 5 rather than a full fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}