{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "2Q26 adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.33 vs. cons $2.30",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2Q26 variable investment income, pretax",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$250M vs. cons $245M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2Q26 Group Benefits adjusted earnings",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$432M vs. cons $420M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Variable investment income",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.60B vs. cons $1.60B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Direct expense ratio",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~12.1% vs. cons 12.1% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "RIS adjusted earnings",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.70B vs. cons $1.70B (FY2026 midpoint)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS beat and clean Group Benefits underwriting support the initial move, but maintained FY2026 VII of ~$1.60B versus consensus ~$1.60B leaves limited out-period estimate upside; the required 2H26 VII catch-up remains about ~$837M versus consensus ~$837M, causing revisions to flatten and part of the day-1 gain to fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}