| MOS |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$475M vs. cons ~$445M |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.22 vs. cons ~$0.14 |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Phosphate stripping margin (Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~$410/t vs. cons ~$385/t |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Q3 phosphate stripping margin (Q3'26) |
LOWER |
guide ~$300/t vs. cons ~$390/t (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
H2/FY phosphate production & volume guide (FY26) |
LOWER |
guide ~1.3-1.5Mt/qtr (likely still withdrawn) vs. cons ~1.7Mt (Q3/H2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Potash price/volume (Q3'26) |
BETTER |
guide MOP ~$275-295/t vs. cons ~$265/t (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
FY26 working-capital release / FCF (FY26) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$300-500M release vs. cons ~$400M (FY 2026) |
LOW |
| MOS |
Guide |
Realized sulfur cost pass-through (Q3'26) |
LOWER |
guide ~$650-750/lt vs. cons ~$540/lt (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
Q2 prints 'less bad than feared' on inventory lag + a 60% pre-priced book plus genuinely strong potash, so shares pop day 1 off a beaten-down, low-expectations base. But the out-period math is negative: the pre-priced phosphate cushion rolls off into ~$1,200 spot sulfur, curtailments deepen/extend, and full-year phosphate guidance stays withdrawn. Analysts cut H2/Q3 stripping-margin and EPS estimates even after the beat, so the initial gain fades back toward the low-$20s range. |
MEDIUM |