{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$475M vs. cons ~$445M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.22 vs. cons ~$0.14",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Phosphate stripping margin (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$410/t vs. cons ~$385/t",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 phosphate stripping margin (Q3'26)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$300/t vs. cons ~$390/t (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2/FY phosphate production & volume guide (FY26)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~1.3-1.5Mt/qtr (likely still withdrawn) vs. cons ~1.7Mt (Q3/H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Potash price/volume (Q3'26)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide MOP ~$275-295/t vs. cons ~$265/t (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 working-capital release / FCF (FY26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$300-500M release vs. cons ~$400M (FY 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Realized sulfur cost pass-through (Q3'26)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$650-750/lt vs. cons ~$540/lt (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 prints 'less bad than feared' on inventory lag + a 60% pre-priced book plus genuinely strong potash, so shares pop day 1 off a beaten-down, low-expectations base. But the out-period math is negative: the pre-priced phosphate cushion rolls off into ~$1,200 spot sulfur, curtailments deepen/extend, and full-year phosphate guidance stays withdrawn. Analysts cut H2/Q3 stripping-margin and EPS estimates even after the beat, so the initial gain fades back toward the low-$20s range.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}