I'll research MOS (The Mosaic Company) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, earnings materials, news, and price data.Let me read the latest earnings materials and gather recent news and price data.Now let me gather recent news and price action heading into the print.Let me get recent news and the earnings-date press release details.Let me pull sector context and check for any recent analyst/peer signals.Let me read a couple of the most relevant macro news items for specifics on phosphate pricing and the current conflict status.I have enough to write a well-grounded preview. Let me compile the key numbers.Here is the preview.

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report timing: Results after the close on Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026; conference call Wednesday, Aug. 5 at 11:00 a.m. ET. Stock (as of 8/3/26): ~$21.82 — down ~13% YTD, ~30% below the March peak (~$31.4), ~23% below pre-war levels (~$28), but ~10% off the June low (~$19.8). Shares are essentially flat since the Q1 print on May 11.

The one thing that matters: sulfur and the Iran war

Everything about this print runs through one variable — sulfur. Phosphate fertilizer needs sulfur (an oil derivative), and the war that broke out in late February locked much of the world's seaborne sulfur supply behind the Strait of Hormuz, sending the cost up roughly fivefold and pushing spot sulfur above $1,200/tonne by the time of the Q1 call. That has crushed phosphate "stripping margins" (finished-product price minus raw-material cost) even as finished DAP/MAP prices have risen. Management was blunt on the Q1 call: at ~$1,200 spot sulfur, the marginal stripping margin sits below variable cost — i.e., producing the marginal tonne loses money — which is why Mosaic began curtailing.

Critically for the H2 outlook: the tentative June 13 peace accord that had lifted MOS ~10% fell apart in early July. As of late July, U.S.–Iran strikes were ongoing (10 consecutive days), gasoline was back above $4/gallon, and the Strait remained militarized. So the macro backdrop heading into the call is worse than the one management framed in May — sulfur relief has not arrived. This is the single biggest driver of both the number and the guidance.

Read-through: Q2 (Apr–Jun) is the first "full-war" quarter. The reported number should be cushioned by inventory lag (cheaper sulfur flowing through COGS) and a book that was 60% pre-committed — but the H2/Q3 commentary is where the risk lives.

What management guided for Q2 (the scorecard to grade against)

Metric	Q1 2026 actual	Q2 2026 guide
Phosphate sales volume	1.9 Mt	1.4–1.7 Mt (reflects Louisiana/Bartow curtailments)
DAP price (FOB plant)	$668	$760–780
Realized sulfur cost	$379/lt	~$540/lt (spot was ~$1,200)
Realized ammonia cost	$626/t	~$610/t
Phosphate stripping margin	~$400	>$400 (60% committed & priced)
Potash sales volume	2.2 Mt	1.9–2.1 Mt
MOP price (FOB mine)	$265	$260–280
Mosaic Fertilizantes EBITDA	$79M	withdrawn — no guidance

For context, Q1 delivered adjusted EBITDA of $416M (vs. $544M a year ago) and adjusted EPS of $0.05, but a GAAP net loss of $258M / $(0.81) driven by $442M of charges (mostly non-cash) tied to idling the Araxá/Patrocínio assets in Brazil. Expect GAAP again to be noisy — watch the Ma'aden equity-stake mark-to-market (~$2B position; a $112M positive swing helped Q1) and any further Brazil write-downs.

Segment-by-segment: what to watch

1) Phosphate — the pressure point

Did they hit the guide? 1.4–1.7 Mt volume and $760–780 DAP are the bogeys. The realized sulfur cost (~$540 guided) is the key line — anything materially higher signals faster pass-through and a weaker H2.
Stripping margin durability. Q2 should still print >$400 because 60% was pre-priced. The concern is Q3, where the pre-priced cushion rolls off into much higher spot sulfur.
U.S. asset reliability — the bull case that's been muted. Three of four U.S. plants were running at ~80% phosphoric-acid rates and the big New Wales turnaround finished in March, so the underlying operational story finally improved — but curtailments are masking it. Watch conversion cost/tonne (guided toward $105–110 in H2 vs. $124 in Q1).

2) Potash — the reliable bright spot

Potash has been "unaffected by the geopolitical turmoil." Market is balanced-to-tight: Canpotex sold out through June and on pace for a record 2026; China and Brazil set Q1 import records; North American spring demand was firm.
Watch realized MOP price — spot has appreciated since late February, and Canpotex's contract/lagged selling means those higher prices flow through in Q2–Q3 (potential upside to the $260–280 guide).
Costs should fall as the HydroFloat project ramps at Esterhazy, offsetting higher-cost Colonsay tonnes; MOP cash cost was $84/t in Q1. Full-year production target: ~9 Mt.
Tariff angle: Washington slapped new 50% tariffs on Canada in late July, but potash remains exempt — a helpful data point given Mosaic's Saskatchewan base.
Sensitivity: $10/t MOP move ≈ $83M annual EBITDA (vs. only ~$60M for a $10/t DAP move), so potash is the bigger earnings lever.

3) Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) — the wildcard, no guidance

Management pulled EBITDA guidance on Brazil given nutrient-availability and credit uncertainty. Brazil imports ~85% of its NPK, and low nitrogen/phosphate availability points to a likely contraction in 2026 fertilizer use.
Positives to watch: distribution margins surprised up in Q1 (fewer volumes, better counterparties), plus cost-plus sulfuric acid and animal-nutrition DCP hold up in any environment.
Restructuring tail: the Araxá/Patrocínio idling could carry additional Q2 period costs (accelerated depreciation, idle-plant expense) even after the $442M Q1 hit.

The real swing factor: H2 / Q3 guidance and curtailment depth

Because the July ceasefire collapse means sulfur relief hasn't come, the market will focus less on the Q2 number and more on: 1. Are the Louisiana (~50% of ~1.4Mt cap) and Bartow (~50% of ~2Mt cap) curtailments being extended or deepened? Management said it has "more options" for further curtailments if sulfur stays unaffordable. 2. Will they reinstate full-year phosphate production guidance (withdrawn in May), or keep it pulled? 3. Q3 stripping-margin math — the pre-priced Q2 cushion won't repeat, so Q3 could show the first quarter where reported (not just marginal) phosphate economics get squeezed.

A credible "sulfur is normalizing / we're restarting" message would be a positive surprise; deeper/extended curtailments and a still-withdrawn outlook are the base case.

Cash, balance sheet & capital allocation

Free cash flow was -$253M in Q1 (normal seasonality). Management reaffirmed a $300–500M working-capital release target for the full year — but higher sulfur inflates raw-material and finished-goods inventory value (~800k tonnes of sulfur in the system), a headwind partly offset by curtailment-driven inventory release. Watch the net working-capital trajectory closely.
CapEx cut to $1.25B (from ~$1.5B) — deferring non-time-sensitive projects with no stated hit to medium-term production.
Cost actions: a new $50M annualized support-function/workforce cut (~$15M in 2026), on top of the existing $100M value-capture program.
Balance sheet: short-term debt jumped to ~$1.2B at Q1; Mosaic secured a $1B credit facility in June for refinancing. Net interest expense guided $200–220M.
Dividend: $0.22/quarter maintained (~$70M/quarter). Buybacks have taken a back seat to preserving cash — watch for any shift.

Longer-term optionality (mostly free options today)

Mosaic Biosciences: 8–10 new product launches in 2026; revenue expected to double off a $68M 2025 base.
Rare earths: development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths to recover REEs from the Uberaba phosphogypsum stack in Brazil (byproduct, not hard-rock mining); early U.S. work "encouraging."
Niobium: potential development at Patrocínio, plus strategic alternatives (including sale) for Araxá.

Bottom line

Mosaic goes into this print as a margin-squeeze story with a self-help overlay. The Q2 number is likely to look "less bad than feared" thanks to inventory lag and a 60%-pre-priced book — but the stock reaction will hinge on the H2 sulfur/curtailment narrative, and the macro has deteriorated since May (ceasefire collapse, sulfur still stranded).

Bull case: potash is quietly excellent (record Canpotex year, rising prices, falling costs, tariff-exempt), U.S. phosphate reliability has genuinely improved, and cost/CapEx discipline plus a big working-capital release protect cash — so any sign of sulfur normalization creates sharp operating leverage into a structurally tight phosphate market.

Bear case: phosphate stripping margins turn outright negative at the margin, Q3 loses the pre-priced cushion, Brazil keeps bleeding, working-capital release disappoints as sulfur inflates inventory, and guidance stays withdrawn — leaving the stock range-bound near the low $20s until Hormuz reopens.

Watch order on the call: (1) any H2 phosphate curtailment/guidance update, (2) realized vs. spot sulfur pass-through, (3) potash price/cost trajectory, (4) working-capital/FCF progress, (5) Brazil charges and distribution margins.

Sources: Mosaic Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript (May 11, 2026); Mosaic 8-K (June 15, 2026) and Q2 earnings-date press release (July 15, 2026); Barron's (June 18, 2026) and The Hill (July 21, 2026) on the Iran war/sulfur backdrop; historical price data via Finnhub. Note: I was not able to retrieve published sell-side consensus EPS/EBITDA estimates through the available tools, so the "scorecard" above is benchmarked against management's own guidance rather than Street consensus.