| MOS |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.05 vs. cons $0.11 |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Phosphate segment Adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$260M vs. cons $320M |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Potash segment Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$300M vs. cons $285M |
LOW |
| MOS |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Phosphate sales volume guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~1.1-1.3 million tonnes vs. cons 1.4-1.7 million tonnes (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
FY2026 Working-capital release |
LOWER |
guide ~$150-250M vs. cons $300-500M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Potash realized MOP price |
BETTER |
guide ~$280-300/tonne vs. cons $260-280/tonne (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| MOS |
Guide |
FY2026 CapEx |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.25B vs. cons $1.25B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
The May Q2 guide (1.4-1.7M phosphate tonnes, $760-780 DAP) predates the July 8 escalation that idled Riverview/Uncle Sam on top of Bartow/Faustina; if Q3 volume guidance steps down again and sulfur/ammonia costs consumed exceed the guided $540/$610 run-rate, sell-side models must cut FY26/27 EPS and stripping-margin assumptions further even if the Q2 miss itself is already partly discounted by depressed consensus. That out-period math (lower H2 production base, delayed working-capital release, still-elevated marginal sulfur cost near $1,200/t) tends to extend price-target cuts over the following days rather than let the stock stabilize, unless management offers concrete evidence of Strait of Hormuz de-escalation or a hard floor on curtailments—neither of which appears imminent based on current news flow. |
MEDIUM |