{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.05 vs. cons $0.11",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Phosphate segment Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$260M vs. cons $320M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Potash segment Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$300M vs. cons $285M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Phosphate sales volume guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~1.1-1.3 million tonnes vs. cons 1.4-1.7 million tonnes (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Working-capital release",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$150-250M vs. cons $300-500M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Potash realized MOP price",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$280-300/tonne vs. cons $260-280/tonne (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 CapEx",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.25B vs. cons $1.25B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -6.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "The May Q2 guide (1.4-1.7M phosphate tonnes, $760-780 DAP) predates the July 8 escalation that idled Riverview/Uncle Sam on top of Bartow/Faustina; if Q3 volume guidance steps down again and sulfur/ammonia costs consumed exceed the guided $540/$610 run-rate, sell-side models must cut FY26/27 EPS and stripping-margin assumptions further even if the Q2 miss itself is already partly discounted by depressed consensus. That out-period math (lower H2 production base, delayed working-capital release, still-elevated marginal sulfur cost near $1,200/t) tends to extend price-target cuts over the following days rather than let the stock stabilize, unless management offers concrete evidence of Strait of Hormuz de-escalation or a hard floor on curtailments\u2014neither of which appears imminent based on current news flow.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}