Report date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 (after market close) | Call: Wednesday, August 5, 11:00 a.m. ET
| Last close (8/3/26) | ~$21.82 |
| 52-week range (approx.) | $19.82 – $26.62 |
| Consensus Q2 EPS | ~$0.08–$0.11 (vs. $0.51 a year ago) |
| Consensus Q2 revenue | ~$3.05B |
| Q1 2026 actual | Adj. EPS $0.05 (missed consensus of $0.20); GAAP net loss of $258M |
Mosaic goes into this print with a stock that has slid from roughly $26.50 in early April to under $22 today, a string of analyst price-target cuts, and a business that has been whipsawed for two straight quarters by an extraordinary spike in raw-material costs tied to the Middle East conflict. The core question for the quarter isn't really about demand — it's about how much margin the sulfur/ammonia shock has eaten, and whether Mosaic's production curtailments have gone deeper than the guidance issued back in May.
Mosaic's first-quarter print set the tone for this whole earnings cycle. The company reported a net loss of $258 million ($(0.81) diluted EPS) against a net income of $238 million a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA of $416 million, down from $544 million, and adjusted EPS of just $0.05 — well below the ~$0.20 the Street had modeled.
The damage was concentrated in two places: - Phosphate segment operating loss of $48 million (vs. +$139M a year ago) as sulfur costs averaged $379/long ton (up 141% YoY) and ammonia averaged $626/tonne (up 50% YoY), swamping higher volumes and prices. - Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) operating loss of $422 million, driven by $442 million of charges tied to idling/divesting the Araxá SSP complex and the Patrocínio mine.
Management framed the quarter around three themes it will likely revisit tomorrow: (1) an extraordinarily tight and volatile raw-material market, (2) Mosaic's ability to "differentiate" via improved U.S. phosphoric-acid operating rates (3 of 4 U.S. plants at target rates, New Wales turnaround completed), and (3) disciplined capital reallocation — CapEx cut to $1.25B, a new $50M cost-savings program on top of an existing $100M target, and asset sales (Carlsbad potash mine, Araxá).
Crucially, Mosaic withdrew full-year 2026 phosphate production guidance and began partial curtailments at Louisiana and Bartow as it judged marginal stripping margins uneconomic given sulfur trading near $1,200/tonne on the margin.
The root cause of Mosaic's margin pressure is the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which has choked off a huge share of global sulfur, ammonia, and phosphate rock flows (roughly a fifth of global phosphate, a quarter of ammonia, and half of seaborne sulfur normally originate in the Middle East). Instead of stabilizing since the May call, the situation escalated:
This matters directly for tomorrow's numbers: the Q2 guidance issued in May (phosphate sales volumes of 1.4–1.7 million tonnes; DAP $760–780/tonne FOB plant) was set before the July escalation, and investors should watch closely whether Q2 volumes came in at the low end — or below — that range, and whether Q3 guidance implies materially lower production than even the reduced Q2 run-rate. On the Q1 call, CFO Luciano Pires flagged that Q2 stripping margins would still exceed $400/tonne on ~60% of an already-priced sales book, but that the marginal cost of sulfur (~$1,200/tonne) and ammonia (~$800/tonne) implied marginal stripping margins below variable cost — a dynamic that pushed Mosaic to keep curtailing rather than chase volume.
Phosphate: Watch realized DAP pricing versus the $760–780/tonne guide, sulfur/ammonia costs consumed in COGS (Q1 came in at $379/sulfur ton, $626/ammonia tonne — both were guided materially higher for Q2, at roughly $540 and $610 respectively), and whether the New Wales ramp continued to support cash conversion costs trending toward the $105–110/tonne second-half target management outlined.
Potash: This has been the steady-Eddie segment — Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $275 million on $265/tonne realized MOP prices, with management noting Canpotex was fully committed through June and pacing for a record 2026. Watch whether Q2 volumes (guided 1.9–2.1 million tonnes) and pricing ($260–280/tonne) held up, and whether North American spring demand and Asian (China, Southeast Asia) restocking kept the segment resilient even as farm economics tightened elsewhere.
Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil): Guidance was pulled entirely for this segment given nutrient-availability and credit uncertainty. Brazil must import roughly 85% of its NPK needs, and management flagged a likely contraction in 2026 fertilizer volumes there due to raw-material scarcity, not demand. Distribution margins had been a bright spot (improving sequentially even as volumes fell), which is worth tracking again.
Mosaic Biosciences / rare earths: A smaller, longer-duration story — management guided to 8–10 new product launches in 2026 and a doubling of Biosciences revenue (off a $68M 2025 base), plus early-stage rare-earth-from-phosphogypsum work with Rainbow Rare Earths in Brazil. Not a near-term earnings driver, but a narrative management likes to lean on amid the phosphate turmoil.
Mosaic's free cash flow was negative $253 million in Q1 (an improvement from -$298M a year ago but still a use of cash), and the company drew on a new $1 billion delayed-draw credit facility signed in June 2026 (split into a 364-day and a three-year tranche) explicitly to refinance existing debt — a signal that liquidity management has become more active as working capital absorbs higher raw-material costs. As of Q1-end, Mosaic carried $281.8 million of cash against $1.2 billion of short-term debt and $4.3 billion of long-term debt, with management targeting a liquidity buffer of up to $3.0 billion and continued investment-grade metrics.
Management had guided to a $300–500 million full-year working-capital release, though it acknowledged two offsetting forces: rising sulfur/ammonia costs inflating inventory values (a headwind) versus curtailment-driven inventory drawdowns (a tailwind). Watch for an update on this range and on the 2026 CapEx guide of $1.25 billion (already cut $250M from the original plan) and the cost-savings program (now targeting $150M annualized combined across two initiatives).
The company continued its $0.22/share quarterly dividend in Q1; capital-return commentary (dividend sustainability, buybacks) will be worth listening for given the cash burn.
Consensus has been cut repeatedly heading into the print — analysts moved Q2 EPS estimates down to roughly $0.08–$0.11 (from $0.51 a year ago), and full-year 2026 EPS estimates near $0.81–$0.83, versus $2.27 in fiscal 2025, before an expected rebound to around $1.83 in 2027. Mosaic has missed Wall Street's EPS estimate in three of its last four quarters. Sell-side price targets have also come down through Q2/Q3: Morgan Stanley cut its target from $28 to $26, Mizuho from $27 to $24, and UBS from $27 to $23, with the group generally holding a cautious "Hold"-type stance rather than turning outright bearish — reflecting a view that the sulfur shock is a real but temporary margin problem rather than a structural demand issue.
This is a print where the headline EPS number matters less than the production and cost trajectory commentary. The setup is bearish on the surface — deep estimate cuts, a stock down roughly 15-20% from April highs, multiple target-price reductions, and a raw-material crisis that visibly worsened between the May and August prints. But the bull case management has consistently pushed — tight underlying phosphate/potash fundamentals, advantaged U.S. ammonia/sulfur sourcing relative to peers, and pent-up "under-application" demand that should eventually support prices once the Strait of Hormuz situation normalizes — remains intact conceptually, even if the timing keeps slipping. Investors should focus on whether guidance for the second half suggests the trough is near, or whether further curtailments and cash burn are still ahead.