| MOS |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.10 vs. cons $0.15 |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$3.08B vs. cons $3.13B |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$425M vs. cons $455M |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Phosphate sales volume |
LOWER |
guide ~1.30M tonnes vs. cons 1.55M tonnes (Q3 2026) |
HIGH |
| MOS |
Guide |
DAP realized price, FOB plant |
BETTER |
guide ~$820/tonne vs. cons $800/tonne (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Phosphate stripping margin |
LOWER |
guide ~$300/tonne vs. cons $375/tonne (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Potash production |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~9.0M tonnes vs. cons 9.0M tonnes (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| MOS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-5.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-7.4% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Q3 phosphate volume guide of ~1.30M tonnes vs. cons 1.55M and stripping margin of ~$300/tonne vs. cons $375 imply estimate cuts that outweigh a potential Q2 pricing benefit. |
MEDIUM |