Timing clarification: Mosaic is scheduled to release Q2 results after the market closes today, Tuesday, August 4, 2026. The earnings call is tomorrow, Wednesday, August 5, at 11:00 a.m. ET. (investors.mosaicco.com)
The key issue is not whether Mosaic narrowly beats a low EPS estimate. It is whether management can show that phosphate selling prices are catching up with sulfur and ammonia costs—or at least that production curtailments are protecting cash while the margin squeeze persists.
Q2 should benefit from a pre-priced phosphate order book and sharply higher DAP realizations. However, elevated raw-material costs, lower phosphate volumes and weakness in Brazil are likely to limit the earnings benefit. More importantly, Mosaic announced additional Brazilian shutdowns in July, after the quarter ended, indicating that the operational pressure continued into Q3. (agriculture.com)
Published consensus sources indicate approximately:
The estimates are unusually uncertain because Mosaic withdrew full-year phosphate production guidance, did not provide Q2 EBITDA guidance for Mosaic Fertilizantes and is operating through exceptional sulfur-market volatility. (benzinga.com)
| Metric | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 company guidance | What matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate sales volume | 1.9M tonnes | 1.4–1.7M | Curtailment impact and inventory availability |
| DAP price, FOB plant | $668/tonne | $760–$780 | Whether higher prices offset sulfur and ammonia |
| Potash sales volume | 2.2M tonnes | 1.9–2.1M | Demand and Canpotex shipment cadence |
| MOP price, FOB mine | $265/tonne | $260–$280 | Potash earnings stability |
| 2026 potash production | — | ~9.0M tonnes | Esterhazy execution and unit-cost improvement |
| 2026 capital spending | — | $1.25B | Cash preservation and potential further cuts |
Mosaic entered Q2 expecting significantly higher raw-material costs in phosphate. Management nevertheless said on the Q1 call that approximately 60% of the Q2 phosphate sales book had already been committed and priced, supporting expected realized stripping margins above $400 per tonne. That pricing lag may allow reported Q2 phosphate economics to look better than contemporaneous spot-market economics.
This is the principal earnings variable.
DAP prices rose materially during the quarter: the WTO reported that global DAP moved from approximately $580 per tonne before the Persian Gulf conflict to around $770. Mosaic’s own Q2 guidance of $760–$780 therefore appears achievable. (wto.org)
But higher finished-product prices tell only half the story. Mosaic’s Q1 sulfur cost in COGS averaged $379 per long ton, and management expected substantially higher realized costs in Q2. Spot sulfur had traded above $1,000 per tonne globally, making incremental phosphate production uneconomic in some locations. (mosaicco.com)
Investors should focus on:
A strong Q2 phosphate result could be backward-looking if management says the remaining order book is exposed to much worse input economics.
Mosaic began Q2 with partial curtailments at Bartow and Louisiana and had already withdrawn its full-year phosphate production forecast. The Q2 sales guide of 1.4–1.7 million tonnes was well below Q1’s 1.9 million. (sec.gov)
Conditions subsequently deteriorated enough for Mosaic to announce further Brazilian measures on July 8:
Because those actions began after June 30, they are primarily a Q3 and second-half issue, rather than a Q2 earnings issue. The most important guidance will therefore be:
Investors should distinguish between disciplined, cash-protective curtailments and operational deterioration. The former can preserve value; the latter would weaken Mosaic’s ability to benefit when raw-material markets normalize.
Potash remains the cleaner part of the Mosaic story.
Q1 potash adjusted EBITDA was $275 million, with MOP realizations of $265 per tonne and sales of 2.2 million tonnes. Mosaic guided Q2 volume to 1.9–2.1 million tonnes and pricing to $260–$280, implying broadly stable realizations. Management also maintained approximately 9 million tonnes of 2026 production. (sec.gov)
The key upside opportunity is cost. Q1 MOP cash production cost was $84 per tonne, but management expected costs to decline as Esterhazy volumes increased and the HydroFloat project reached full production rates.
Watch for:
A stable-to-improving potash outlook could offset another reduction in phosphate expectations.
Mosaic Fertilizantes generated $79 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 despite difficult grower credit conditions and depressed production margins. Management withheld Q2 segment guidance because of uncertainty around nutrient availability, sulfur costs and Brazilian operating rates. (sec.gov)
The segment has competing forces:
Potential positives
Potential negatives
The April decision to idle Araxá and related Patrocínio mining activity removes approximately 1 million tonnes of annual phosphate production. That should improve the portfolio structurally, but the July curtailments broaden the issue beyond those already underperforming assets. (investors.mosaicco.com)
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $416 million, but free cash flow was negative $253 million because of normal seasonality and $357 million of capital spending. Cash was only $282 million at quarter-end, against approximately $5.5 billion of short- and long-term debt. (sec.gov)
Management previously maintained that Mosaic could release roughly $300–$500 million of working capital during 2026. Curtailments should reduce inventory and raw-material purchases, but higher sulfur and ammonia prices increase the dollar value tied up in remaining inventories.
Questions for Q2 include:
Mosaic secured a new $1 billion delayed-draw term facility in June, split between a $500 million 364-day tranche and a $500 million three-year tranche. The proceeds are intended to refinance existing debt. This addresses refinancing flexibility but does not reduce underlying leverage. (sec.gov)
A constructive report would include:
The strongest bullish message would be that Q2 represents the peak in raw-material pressure and Q3 costs will begin to normalize.
The principal risks are:
The global supply backdrop remains unstable. Although there have been efforts to reopen fertilizer trade through the Strait of Hormuz, the WTO noted that a stable resumption of shipments had not yet been established. (wto.org)
The initial EPS and revenue comparison may matter less than these three disclosures:
A Q2 beat accompanied by worsening second-half phosphate economics could be received poorly. Conversely, a modest headline miss could be overlooked if management presents a credible sulfur-normalization timeline, stable potash earnings and better cash generation.
MOS enters the report as a potash-supported business navigating an extreme phosphate raw-material squeeze. Q2 may be partially protected by lagged input costs and a pre-priced sales book, but the July Brazilian curtailments suggest that Q3 is the real test.
The most investable outcome would not simply be an EPS beat. It would be evidence that Mosaic can protect cash, maintain its best assets and preserve enough operating flexibility to capture the eventual recovery in phosphate margins.