| MOS |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.34 vs. cons $0.42 |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Phosphate adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$145m vs. cons $175m |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Potash adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$285m vs. cons $265m |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Phosphate sales volumes |
LOWER |
guide ~3.0m tonnes vs. cons 3.4m tonnes (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Potash production volumes |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~9.0m tonnes vs. cons 9.0m tonnes (FY26) |
HIGH |
| MOS |
Guide |
Capital expenditures |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.25bn vs. cons $1.25bn (FY26) |
HIGH |
| MOS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-5.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-8.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Phosphate EBITDA and EPS miss are compounded by an implied ~0.4m-tonne 2H26 phosphate-volume cut versus consensus, pulling down out-period EBITDA and EPS estimates despite resilient potash execution. |
MEDIUM |