{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.34 vs. cons $0.42",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Phosphate adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$145m vs. cons $175m",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Potash adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$285m vs. cons $265m",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Phosphate sales volumes",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0m tonnes vs. cons 3.4m tonnes (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Potash production volumes",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9.0m tonnes vs. cons 9.0m tonnes (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital expenditures",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.25bn vs. cons $1.25bn (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -5.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -8.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Phosphate EBITDA and EPS miss are compounded by an implied ~0.4m-tonne 2H26 phosphate-volume cut versus consensus, pulling down out-period EBITDA and EPS estimates despite resilient potash execution.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}