Timing note: The event date provided is Tuesday, August 4, 2026—which is today, not tomorrow. This preview therefore reflects information available through the August 3 market close.
Mosaic enters 2Q26 earnings with a mixed setup: potash should remain a relatively dependable earnings contributor, while phosphate is caught between sharply higher finished-product prices and an unusually severe raw-material squeeze—especially sulfur. The market’s focus should be less on reported GAAP EPS, which may still be affected by idling/restructuring and mark-to-market items, and more on:
MOS closed at $21.82 on August 3, down roughly 12.8% year-to-date and 30.4% below its March 12 high of $31.36. That price action suggests investors have already discounted a meaningful amount of phosphate disruption—but it also raises the importance of whether Mosaic can demonstrate that the disruption is temporary rather than a prolonged earnings reset.
At 1Q earnings, Mosaic described a highly unusual phosphate market: finished-product prices were rising, but sulfur availability and spot prices had risen even faster. The company’s operating response was to partially curtail phosphate production at Louisiana and Bartow, while scaling back Brazilian output, rather than consume raw materials at unattractive incremental economics.
That decision makes the Q2 report especially important for two reasons:
The market will likely view Q2 as a bridge quarter. Strong realized DAP pricing could protect earnings despite the lower production plan, but the more consequential issue is whether sulfur availability and cost have improved sufficiently to support normal operating rates and reasonable marginal returns in 3Q and beyond.
In 1Q, Mosaic’s Phosphate segment generated $115 million of adjusted EBITDA, down from $276 million a year earlier. Sales volume was strong at 1.9 million tonnes, but the segment’s economics were compressed by a $280 million year-over-year increase in raw-material costs.
For 2Q, management guided:
| Phosphate metric | 1Q26 actual | 2Q26 company outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Sales volumes | 1.9m tonnes | 1.4m–1.7m tonnes |
| DAP price, FOB plant | $668/tonne | $760–$780/tonne |
| Sulfur cost in COGS | $379/long ton | ~ $540/tonne |
| Cash conversion cost | $124/tonne | Higher in Q2; lower expected later in year |
The trade-off is clear: pricing should be substantially better, but lower volumes and higher raw-material costs may offset much of that benefit. Importantly, 1Q’s $124/tonne conversion cost included New Wales turnaround costs; management had expected improving asset performance to lower costs over time. The curtailments complicate that improvement because lower utilization spreads fixed costs over fewer tonnes.
Key call question: Can Mosaic show that New Wales and the other U.S. phosphate assets are operating reliably enough to ramp quickly once sulfur economics normalize?
Potash remains Mosaic’s clearest operational support. In 1Q, the segment produced:
For 2Q, Mosaic guided to:
| Potash metric | 1Q26 actual | 2Q26 company outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Sales volumes | 2.2m tonnes | 1.9m–2.1m tonnes |
| MOP price, FOB mine | $265/tonne | $260–$280/tonne |
| Full-year production | — | ~9.0m tonnes |
The guidance implies a relatively steady quarter: pricing should remain close to 1Q levels, while volumes moderate seasonally. The bigger issue is whether the company can deliver on its full-year ~9 million tonne production target while driving costs lower through the Esterhazy HydroFloat ramp and related optimization initiatives.
Management previously said that improving Esterhazy production should more than offset the effect of the Carlsbad divestiture and reduce cost per tonne through the remainder of the year. A reaffirmation of that narrative would be important, particularly if phosphate remains constrained.
Key call question: Is Esterhazy now operating at the expected rate, and does Mosaic still see a tangible second-half potash cost step-down?
Brazil remains the least predictable business line. In 1Q, Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered $79 million of adjusted EBITDA, down from $122 million in the prior-year quarter, amid lower sales volumes, compressed distribution margins, elevated sulfur costs, and difficult farmer-credit conditions.
The segment also recorded major charges related to the idling of Araxá and Patrocínio. These actions drove a $442 million charge in 1Q, of which $328 million was non-cash. Mosaic did not provide 2Q EBITDA guidance for Fertilizantes because it was assessing operating rates and nutrient availability.
The strategic case is potentially better than the reported 1Q loss suggests:
Key call question: Are distribution margins and credit quality improving sufficiently to offset weaker industry shipment volumes and lost production?
Investors should be careful with headline EPS. In 1Q, Mosaic reported a GAAP net loss of $258 million, or $(0.81) per share, but adjusted EBITDA was $416 million and adjusted EPS was $0.05. The gap reflected idling-related asset charges, restructuring actions, foreign exchange, Ma’aden mark-to-market movements, and other notable items.
For 2Q, the main quality-of-earnings questions are:
The cleanest read-through will likely be segment adjusted EBITDA, per-tonne margins, operating-rate commentary, and free-cash-flow progression.
Mosaic is actively managing cash through a difficult operating environment:
The lower capex plan, potential working-capital release, and debt-refinancing capacity are meaningful mitigants. Still, investors will want confirmation that phosphate curtailments are helping cash—not merely shifting cost and volume pressure into later quarters.
The near-term MOS setup is balanced but fragile. Potash provides a relatively stable earnings and cash-flow foundation, while Mosaic’s phosphate business has the potential for a substantial rebound once raw-material logistics and economics normalize. However, the timing of that normalization—and the resulting level of second-half phosphate production—is still the central uncertainty.
A favorable report would pair solid Q2 realization against guidance with evidence that sulfur constraints are easing, potash execution is improving, and cash flow remains protected. A weak report would be one where Q2 held up only because of previously priced sales while management remains unable to articulate a viable second-half phosphate operating plan.
The most investable positive outcome is not necessarily a large Q2 beat—it is credible evidence that Mosaic can restore phosphate utilization without sacrificing margins or balance-sheet flexibility.