| MOS |
Report |
Phosphate Avg. Price (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$785-795/t vs. cons $778/t |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Phosphate Sales Volume (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~1,450-1,500 KT vs. cons 1,544 KT |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Report |
Mosaic Fertilizantes EBITDA (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$20-40M vs. cons $43M |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Phosphate Price (Q3 2026) |
LOWER |
guide ~$720-750/t vs. cons UNVERIFIED (~$750-780 implied) |
LOW |
| MOS |
Guide |
FY 2026 EBITDA (implied by Q3 guide) |
LOWER |
guide ~$1.45-1.55B implied vs. cons $1.659B |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Guide |
Sulfur/Production Restart Commentary |
LOWER |
cautious tone, no restart signal expected vs. market hoping for normalization |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MOS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
FOLLOW-THROUGH - sell-side models implicit FY cut; estimates drift lower as analysts reprice H2 recovery assumptions |
MEDIUM |