{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Phosphate Avg. Price (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$785-795/t vs. cons $778/t",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Phosphate Sales Volume (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~1,450-1,500 KT vs. cons 1,544 KT",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Mosaic Fertilizantes EBITDA (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$20-40M vs. cons $43M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Phosphate Price (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$720-750/t vs. cons UNVERIFIED (~$750-780 implied)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY 2026 EBITDA (implied by Q3 guide)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.45-1.55B implied vs. cons $1.659B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Sulfur/Production Restart Commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "cautious tone, no restart signal expected vs. market hoping for normalization",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH - sell-side models implicit FY cut; estimates drift lower as analysts reprice H2 recovery assumptions",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}