The Mosaic Company (MOS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is a low bar with meaningful upside optionality — consensus has been cut sharply since the Q1 miss, but the single biggest swing factor is whether sulfur cost normalization and phosphate price strength translate into a stripping margin recovery that the market has not yet priced in.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for MOS is unambiguously low: consensus operating EPS sits at just $0.13 (vs. $0.05 actual in Q1 2026 and $0.51 in Q2 2025), and operating EBITDA consensus of ~$393M is well below the $566M delivered a year ago. Management guided Q2 DAP pricing at $760–$780/tonne with realized sulfur costs of ~$540/tonne — a dramatic improvement from the ~$1,200/tonne marginal sulfur cost that crushed Q1 margins — and 60% of the Q2 sales book was already committed and priced at the time of the May 11 call, providing meaningful visibility. Estimate revisions have been sharply negative since the Q1 print (operating EPS consensus fell from $0.16 to $0.13 for Q2, and FY2026 from $0.78 to $0.63), but the trajectory of sulfur prices and the pace of phosphate price appreciation since the call suggest the street may be too conservative on stripping margins. The stock has essentially flat-lined since the Q1 earnings date (indexed ~101.6 vs. 100 at earnings), underperforming XLB (96.5) on an absolute basis but tracking the S&P 500 (101.1) — suggesting the market has neither priced in a recovery nor a further deterioration, leaving the stock in a binary setup. The wildcard is the pace of Middle East conflict resolution and sulfur availability normalization: any credible signal that seaborne sulfur flows are resuming could drive a sharp re-rating of phosphate producer margins and MOS's stock well ahead of the print.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q2 2026 guidance from MOS Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 11, 2026). All figures in USD.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters) — Top 2 KPIs: Operating EPS & Phosphate Avg. Price

Pattern: MOS has missed on operating EPS in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with phosphate realized price consistently coming in below consensus — the street has persistently overestimated phosphate pricing, making the Q2 2026 consensus of $778/t (vs. management’s $760–$780/t guidance midpoint of $770/t) a more credible bar than usual given explicit guidance anchoring. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has shifted materially since Q1 2026 earnings — CapEx was cut $250M to $1.25B, Fertilizantes EBITDA guidance was withdrawn entirely, and production curtailments were announced at Bartow, Louisiana (partial), and Brazil; tone has moved from cautiously optimistic to explicit crisis management, though management remains confident in a recovery once sulfur normalizes.

Source: MOS Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (May 11, 2026). Consensus from Visible Alpha.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been cut sharply since the Q1 2026 print — Q2 2026 operating EPS consensus fell from $0.16 to $0.13 (post-earnings baseline to current), and FY2026 from $0.78 to $0.63 — but the cuts may be overdone given management’s explicit Q2 DAP pricing guidance of $760–$780/t and a sulfur cost assumption of $540/t that implies a meaningful stripping margin recovery vs. Q1.

The divergence between EPS/EBITDA revisions (down ~19%/5% since the Q1 print) and revenue/price revisions (up ~2–4%) reflects the market’s uncertainty about cost normalization rather than demand — if sulfur costs track management’s $540/t Q2 realized assumption, the EPS bar of $0.13 could prove conservative. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: MOS has essentially flat-lined since the Q1 2026 earnings date (indexed ~101.6 vs. 100), outperforming XLB (96.5) on a relative basis but tracking the S&P 500 (101.1) — the stock has not priced in a recovery, suggesting performance has been driven by sentiment stabilization rather than estimate revisions or multiple expansion.

MOS vs. XLB (Materials ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (May 11, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Since the Q1 2026 earnings date (May 11, 2026), MOS has traded in a narrow range of roughly $19.82–$24.06, with a brief rally to the high-$23s in late May (around the BMO Farm-to-Market Conference on May 13) before pulling back. The stock hit an intra-period low of $19.82 on June 10 — coinciding with broader market weakness — before recovering. The $1B credit facility announcement (June 10/15) provided a modest positive catalyst. Multiple analyst price target cuts (Morgan Stanley to $26, Barclays to $26, Wells Fargo to $22, Goldman Sachs to $28, UBS to $23, HSBC to $23) reflect the street’s skepticism about near-term earnings power, while BMO maintained Outperform with a $31 PT and RBC upgraded to Outperform with a $27 PT. The stock’s flat performance vs. the S&P 500 despite significant EPS estimate cuts suggests the market has already discounted a weak near-term earnings environment, leaving the risk/reward skewed to the upside if Q2 results confirm the stripping margin recovery implied by management’s guidance. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).

6. Peer Commentaries — Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days, Q2 2026 Relevant)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary since the Q1 2026 earnings season is uniformly constructive on potash (tight supply, strong demand, elevated prices) and cautious on phosphate (sulfur cost headwinds, demand rationing, China export ban), directly corroborating MOS’s Q2 setup — the read-through from ICL, NTR, CF, BG, and CTVA all point to a phosphate market that is supply-constrained but demand-challenged, with potash as the stable earnings anchor.

ICL Group (ICL) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 13, 2026)

Relevance: ICL is a direct phosphate and potash peer; its Q1 2026 results and Q2/H2 2026 outlook provide the most direct read-through to MOS’s Q2 environment.

• Sulfur costs skyrocketing, availability issue persists: ICL confirmed sulfur prices were up “more than 100% in the quarter” in Q1 2026, directly compressing Phosphate Solutions EBITDA to $131M. Management stated sulfur prices are “skyrocketing now, continue to increase” with an accompanying availability issue — directly corroborating MOS’s Q1 miss driver and Q2 cost guidance of $540/t realized sulfur.
• Phosphate demand expected lower than usual for rest of 2026: ICL explicitly stated “I would expect demand to be lower than usual in the rest of the year for phosphate fertilizers” due to the need to raise prices in response to sulfur costs. This is a direct read-through risk for MOS’s Q2 phosphate sales volume consensus of 1,544 KT.
• China export ban through end of 2026: ICL confirmed China is “basically blocking exports” and expects this to continue “for the remainder of ’26.” This creates tight supply but also some demand damage — net positive for MOS’s realized pricing but a headwind for volumes.
• Potash strong: ICL’s potash division delivered Q1 2026 EBITDA of $172M (+45% YoY) with average price of $362 CIF/t (+20% YoY). ICL raised FY2026 consolidated EBITDA guidance by $100M, predominantly driven by potash volume and pricing momentum. Potash prices expected to “remain elevated throughout 2026” — positive read-through for MOS’s potash segment.
• Phosphate pricing partially compensating for sulfur: ICL noted it does not expect phosphate prices to “fully compensate” for sulfur cost increases but expects “partially, at least” compensation — consistent with MOS’s Q2 stripping margin guidance of “in excess of $400/t” for its committed sales book.

Nutrien (NTR) — BMO Capital Markets Global Farm to Market Conference (May 13, 2026)

Relevance: NTR is the world’s largest potash producer and a major phosphate player; its CFO’s commentary at the BMO conference provides a comprehensive market read-through for both MOS segments.

• Phosphate economics “unsustainable” but resolution unclear: NTR CFO Mark Thompson stated the current situation where “cost and price of sulfur and ammonia fly up quite a bit more significantly than finished phosphate pricing” is “unsustainable, but it’s not clear that it will immediately resolve itself.” This validates MOS’s production curtailment decisions and suggests the Q2 environment remains challenged.
• Phosphate application rates below expectations: NTR confirmed it is “continuing to see through the spring” that “phosphate application rates [are] below what we would have expected” — a direct read-through risk for MOS’s North American phosphate demand in Q2.
• Sulfur needs to be “several hundred dollars lower” for sustainable phosphate economics: NTR stated that for sustainable phosphate profitability, “you need ammonia and sulfur prices, both several hundred dollars lower and particularly sulfur, which is the big cost driver.” This frames the magnitude of the cost normalization needed for MOS to return to normalized margins.
• Potash record volumes, market growing for 4th consecutive year: NTR reported “record potash sales volumes” in Q1 2026 and sees the potash market “set to grow globally for the fourth year in a row.” Global shipments guidance unchanged at 74–77M tonnes. Potash “largely unaffected by the conflict.” Strong positive read-through for MOS’s potash segment.
• NTR actively marketing its phosphate business for sale: NTR disclosed it is “actively in the market with our sales process” for its phosphate business, targeting a conclusion by year-end. This is a significant industry development — if NTR exits phosphate, it could reduce competitive supply and benefit MOS long-term, though near-term it signals industry-wide distress in the segment.
• Brazil potash at 5-year inventory lows entering 2026: NTR cited “a five year low in inventories entering the year for potash in Brazil” as a key demand driver — positive for MOS’s potash pricing and Fertilizantes distribution margins when conditions normalize.

CF Industries (CF) — BMO Capital Markets Global Farm to Market Conference (May 13, 2026)

Relevance: CF is primarily a nitrogen producer but its commercial team’s commentary on global supply constraints and phosphate market dynamics provides useful macro context for MOS.

• “We are going to be short phosphate in the world”: CF’s EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Bert Frost stated explicitly that the world will be short phosphate, driven by Middle East supply disruptions, China export restrictions, and a global sulfur shortage (“So we’re short sulfur”). This is the most bullish possible read-through for MOS’s phosphate pricing power in Q2 and H2 2026.
• Supply-limited market with nationalistic export restrictions: CF described a “unique supply limited market” driven by Middle East production shutdowns, Russia/China export restrictions, and operational issues at old assets. The market is “short 5 million tons at a minimum coming out of the Gulf” for nitrogen, with similar dynamics for phosphate.
• Fill season expected to be strong in early August: CF expects a “very good fill program” commencing in “early August” driven by near-zero retail inventory levels — positive for MOS’s H2 2026 phosphate and potash volumes.
• Potash at $350 “reasonable” / “cheap”: CF’s team characterized potash at $350/t as “reasonable” and even “cheap,” suggesting further upside to MOS’s potash pricing consensus of $312/t for Q2 2026.

Bunge (BG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 29, 2026)

Relevance: Bunge is a major agricultural commodity processor with significant Brazil exposure; its Q2 2026 results (reported July 29) provide the most current read-through on Brazil agriculture and fertilizer demand heading into MOS’s Q2 print.

• Fertilizer access concerns in South America, phosphate the key worry: Bunge noted “early impacts due to the lack of fertilizer access in South America” and stated “the current concern is more around phosphates.” This is being closely watched in Argentina, as persistent issues could lead farmers to reduce investment and affect yields — a direct read-through risk for MOS’s Fertilizantes segment in Q2 and H2.
• Brazil soy margins lower in H2 2026: Bunge guided H2 2026 Brazil soy margins to be “a little lower” due to strong bean exports, delays in B16, and a slowdown in farmer selling — suggesting Brazilian farmer economics remain under pressure, consistent with MOS’s withdrawal of Fertilizantes EBITDA guidance.
• El Niño risk for Brazil planting timing: Bunge flagged that if El Niño leads to delayed planting in Brazil, it could impact the Safrina crop and farmer investment decisions based on fertilizer prices at that time — a potential additional headwind for MOS’s Brazil operations in H2 2026.
• Long-term demand drivers remain strong: Despite near-term headwinds, Bunge emphasized that “long-term demand drivers for Bunge’s business remain strong, fueled by population growth and rising incomes” — consistent with MOS management’s long-term phosphate supply/demand thesis.

Corteva (CTVA) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 31, 2026)

Relevance: Corteva is a leading crop protection and seed company with significant Brazil exposure; its Q2 2026 results (reported July 31) provide the most current read-through on farmer economics and Brazil agricultural conditions.

• Farmer margins tight globally, Brazil under more pressure: Corteva confirmed “farmer margins remain tight” globally, with Brazilian farmers “under more pressure than other parts of the world” due to “impact from fuel and fertilizer prices.” Credit is “tight for the Brazilian farmer right now” — directly corroborating MOS’s cautious Brazil outlook and Fertilizantes guidance withdrawal.
• Brazil crop protection market well-supplied but competitive: Corteva noted Brazil is “well supplied” but experiencing “more competitive pressure” and does not expect price recovery in Brazil crop protection in 2026 — consistent with MOS’s view that 2026 will see a contraction in fertilizer use in Brazil.
• All indications point to a solid volume market in Brazil: Despite pricing pressure, Corteva stated “all indications are that we’re going to have a very solid volume market in Brazil” — a modestly positive read-through for MOS’s Fertilizantes distribution volumes if nutrient availability improves.
• Crop prices up, supporting farmer investment: Corteva noted “crop prices are up” globally, which should support farmer purchasing decisions for the next planting season — a positive longer-term signal for MOS’s phosphate and potash demand recovery.

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the $1B credit facility secured in June 2026, which materially strengthens MOS’s liquidity position and signals financial flexibility during the phosphate downturn — the implication for the print is reduced balance sheet risk, allowing management to maintain the curtailment strategy without distress.

• June 10/15, 2026 — Mosaic secures $1B credit facility for debt refinancing: MOS entered into a committed delayed draw term loan credit facility with an aggregate principal amount of up to $1.0B, structured as two tranches: a 364-day tranche of $500M and a three-year tranche of $500M. Proceeds designated for repaying existing indebtedness. Implication: Significantly strengthens liquidity and refinancing flexibility during the phosphate downturn; reduces near-term balance sheet risk and supports the curtailment strategy without forced asset sales.
• July 15, 2026 — MOS announces Q2 2026 earnings date (August 4, after market close): Mosaic confirmed Q2 2026 results will be released August 4, 2026 after market close, with a conference call on August 5 at 11:00 AM ET. Implication: Standard scheduling; no pre-announcement or guidance update issued alongside, suggesting no material positive or negative surprise to flag ahead of the print.
• May 11, 2026 — Q1 2026 earnings: significant miss, production curtailments announced: MOS reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.05 vs. consensus of ~$0.21 (miss of ~76%). Revenue beat. Phosphate segment reported an operating loss despite record quarterly sales volumes of 1.9M tonnes. Curtailments announced at Bartow, Louisiana (partial), and Brazil. Araxa and Patrocinio idled. CapEx cut $250M to $1.25B. Workforce reduction initiated (annualized savings ~$50M). Implication: Sets the baseline for Q2 — the bar is low, but the market will focus on whether stripping margins have recovered as guided.
• May 13, 2026 — BMO Farm-to-Market Conference (NTR, CF, BG, CTVA): Multiple peers presented at the BMO conference, with commentary uniformly confirming the challenging phosphate environment (sulfur costs, demand rationing) and strong potash market. NTR disclosed it is actively marketing its phosphate business for sale. Implication: NTR’s potential phosphate exit is a long-term positive for MOS’s competitive positioning; near-term peer commentary validates MOS’s cautious Q2 phosphate volume guidance.
• June 17, 2026 — Freedom Broker upgrades MOS to Buy: Freedom Broker upgraded MOS from Sell to Buy. Multiple other firms maintained ratings with price target cuts: Morgan Stanley (EW, PT $26), Barclays (EW, PT $26), Wells Fargo (EW, PT $22), Goldman Sachs (Buy, PT $28), UBS (Neutral, PT $23), HSBC (Hold, PT $23), BMO (Outperform, PT $31), RBC (upgraded to Outperform, PT $27), Rothschild & Co (initiated Buy, PT $30). Implication: Consensus rating is Hold with average PT ~$27–$30, implying 25–40% upside from current levels — the street sees value but is waiting for evidence of margin recovery.
• April 2026 — Carlsbad potash mine sale completed: MOS completed the sale of its Carlsbad potash mine in New Mexico to International Minerals Carlsbad, part of the broader portfolio rationalization strategy. Implication: Reduces maintenance CapEx burden and focuses capital on higher-return assets; modest positive for FCF.
• March 2026 — Rare earth elements project development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths: MOS announced a project development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths to recover rare earth elements from the Uberaba phosphogypsum stack in Brazil, with similar US opportunities under evaluation. Implication: Long-term optionality value; not a near-term earnings driver but could become a meaningful valuation catalyst if rare earth economics prove out.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells by executives or directors since the Q1 2026 earnings date — the only Form 4 activity was routine director compensation awards (transaction code “M” — exercise/conversion of equity awards) on May 28, 2026, which carry no informational signal about management’s view of the stock.

All transactions on May 28, 2026 are equity award conversions (Form 4 transaction code “M” — exercise or conversion of derivative security), not open-market purchases or sales. These are routine director compensation events and carry no informational signal. Notably absent: No open-market buys by executives or directors since the Q1 2026 earnings date, despite the stock trading near multi-year lows — the lack of insider buying is a mild negative signal, though not unusual given the uncertain near-term outlook. Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4).

— End of Report —