MOS Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker	Report or Guide	KPI	Prediction	Answer	Confidence
MOS	Report	Adjusted EPS	MISS	pred ~$0.11 vs. cons $0.129	LOW
MOS	Report	Phosphate sales volume	MISS	pred ~1.52m tonnes vs. cons 1.544m	LOW
MOS	Report	Potash sales volume	MISS	pred ~2.07m tonnes vs. cons 2.099m	LOW
MOS	Guide	Phosphate sales volume (Q3 2026)	LOWER	guide ~1.35–1.45m tonnes vs. cons 1.469m	LOW
MOS	Guide	Potash sales volume (Q3 2026)	LOWER	guide ~2.20–2.30m tonnes vs. cons 2.325m	LOW
MOS	Guide	Phosphate production commentary (FY26)	UNCHANGED	guide remains withdrawn vs. cons UNVERIFIED	LOW
MOS	Return	Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500)	-4.5%	—	LOW
MOS	Return	5-day cumulative residual	-6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH)	FOLLOW-THROUGH — Q3 estimate cuts	LOW