The Mosaic Company (MOS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The bar is low — consensus EPS for Q2 2026 has collapsed to ~$0.05–0.13 from ~$0.94 a year ago — but the real swing factor is whether phosphate stripping margins have recovered enough to avoid another operating loss, and whether management can provide any clarity on the H2 production outlook after withdrawing full-year phosphate guidance.

Heading into the Q2 2026 print, Mosaic faces a uniquely depressed consensus bar: the street has slashed Q2 EPS estimates from ~$0.94 a year ago to roughly $0.05–0.13, reflecting the Persian Gulf conflict’s devastating impact on global sulfur supply chains that drove an operating loss in Q1 despite record phosphate sales volumes. Management guided Q2 phosphate stripping margins “in excess of $400/tonne” on 60% committed/priced book at $760–780/tonne DAP, with realized sulfur costs of ~$540/tonne — a meaningful sequential improvement from Q1’s ~$379/tonne average that still reflected pre-spike inventory, but the real question is whether spot sulfur has normalized enough to allow production restarts at Bartow and Louisiana. Potash remains the bright spot: Canpotex was sold out through June and on pace for a record 2026, and potash prices have risen sharply since February, which should flow through to Q2/Q3 realizations. The stock is down ~20% since last earnings and trades at just 0.58x book and 6.3x NTM EBITDA — a deeply discounted setup that prices in continued distress — meaning any signal of sulfur normalization or production restart could be a meaningful catalyst. The wildcard is the trajectory of Persian Gulf geopolitics: if refinery damage is more persistent than expected, H2 production curtailments could deepen further, while any ceasefire or supply normalization could trigger a sharp re-rating.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a very low bar across all KPIs — Q2 EPS of ~$0.05 vs. $0.51 a year ago reflects the depth of the sulfur shock. Phosphate volumes are the bigger swing factor: consensus expects ~1.54M tonnes, well below Q1’s record 1.94M tonnes, as curtailments at Bartow and Louisiana bite. Potash is the relative bright spot with stable volumes and improving price realizations.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q2 2026 consensus estimates as of August 3, 2026. Q2 2026 guidance from Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Earnings Call (May 11, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Adj. EPS & Phosphate Sales Volume (Last 8 Quarters)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

Pattern: MOS has missed on Adj. EPS in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with misses accelerating in severity as the sulfur shock hit in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Phosphate volumes have also missed consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, though Q1 2026 was a notable exception (record volumes despite the operating loss). The consistent EPS miss pattern reflects the difficulty of forecasting raw material cost volatility in this environment.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management made sweeping guidance changes at Q1 earnings on May 11 — withdrawing full-year phosphate production guidance and Brazil EBITDA guidance entirely, cutting CapEx by $250M, and providing only Q2 segment-level volume/price guidance. No post-earnings guidance updates have been issued since May 11, leaving the Q2 print as the first opportunity to reset the H2 outlook.

Source: MOS Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Earnings Call Transcript (May 11, 2026); MOS 8-K (June 15, 2026).

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been in freefall since Q1 earnings — Q2 EPS consensus has collapsed from $0.21 (post-Q1 baseline) to ~$0.05 today, a ~76% cut in under three months. FY 2026 EPS consensus has fallen from $0.78 to $0.63, reflecting the market’s view that H2 will not fully recover from the sulfur shock. The gap between withdrawn guidance and current consensus creates maximum uncertainty heading into the print.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline as of approximately May 18, 2026 (5 trading days after May 11, 2026 earnings). Current consensus as of August 3, 2026.

The estimate revision trajectory tells a stark story: the street has been cutting numbers continuously since Q1 earnings, with EPS estimates down 76% for Q2 and 19% for FY 2026. Notably, phosphate volume estimates have been relatively stable (down only ~0.3% for Q2), suggesting the market is not expecting further curtailment surprises on the volume side — the risk is entirely on the cost/margin side. The absence of any company guidance for EBITDA or EPS creates a wide range of outcomes, and the Q2 print will be the first opportunity to reset expectations for H2.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: MOS is up only ~1.5% since Q1 earnings (May 11, 2026) vs. XLB −13.5% and SPY +1.0% — a modest relative outperformance driven almost entirely by multiple expansion on collapsing earnings estimates rather than fundamental improvement. Over 12 months, MOS is down ~39%, with the decline almost entirely earnings-driven (P/Book compressed from 0.92x to 0.58x), reflecting the market’s loss of confidence in the earnings power of the phosphate franchise.

MOS vs. XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (May 11, 2026). MOS +1.5%, XLB ∓3.5%, SPY +1.0% through August 4, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Performance decomposition: Over the past 12 months, MOS has declined ~39%, with the move almost entirely driven by earnings estimate compression rather than multiple contraction — P/E has actually expanded from 11.4x to 16.6x NTM as EPS estimates collapsed faster than the stock price fell. P/Book has compressed from 0.92x to 0.58x, reflecting the market’s view that book value itself may be impaired. Since Q1 earnings, the stock has traded in a tight $19.82–$24.06 range, with a brief dip to $19.82 on June 10 (likely on macro/geopolitical concerns) before recovering. The stock is essentially pricing in a prolonged period of below-normal earnings, with any sulfur normalization representing significant upside optionality.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the $1B credit facility secured on June 10, 2026, which removes near-term liquidity risk and signals management’s confidence in navigating the downturn. No operational guidance updates have been issued since Q1 earnings, leaving the Q2 print as the first opportunity to reset the H2 outlook.

• June 15, 2026 — Mosaic Secures $1 Billion Credit Facility (8-K): Mosaic entered into a committed delayed draw term loan credit facility for up to $1.0B, structured as two tranches: $500M 364-day and $500M three-year. Proceeds designated to repay existing indebtedness. Implication: Removes near-term refinancing risk and provides liquidity buffer during the sulfur-driven earnings trough; signals lender confidence in the business. Positive for credit quality and financial flexibility heading into a period of uncertain cash generation.
• July 15, 2026 — Mosaic Announces Q2 2026 Earnings Date (Press Release): Confirmed August 5, 2026 earnings call at 11:00 AM ET. No operational updates provided.
• May 11, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings: Phosphate Operating Loss, Guidance Withdrawals (8-K/Earnings Release): Reported net loss of $258M / diluted EPS of $(0.81). Adj. EPS of $0.05 vs. consensus of ~$0.21. Key actions: (1) withdrew full-year phosphate production guidance; (2) withdrew Q2 Brazil EBITDA guidance; (3) cut FY CapEx by $250M to $1.25B; (4) announced partial curtailments at Bartow and Louisiana; (5) idled Araxa and Patrocinio in Brazil ($442M in charges, $328M non-cash). Implication: Established the crisis management posture that defines the current setup; Q2 print is the first opportunity to show whether conditions have stabilized.
• April 2026 — Workforce Reduction Announced: Mosaic initiated a workforce reduction expected to generate $50M in annualized savings, with $15M to be realized in 2026. Layered on top of the existing $100M value capture program. Implication: Demonstrates cost discipline; $15M partial-year benefit should show up in Q2 SG&A.
• April 2026 — Carlsbad Potash Mine Sale Completed: Sale of the Carlsbad, New Mexico potash mine completed in April 2026. Implication: Portfolio rationalization; Esterhazy production expected to more than offset Carlsbad volume loss. Reduces maintenance CapEx burden.
• Ongoing — Persian Gulf Conflict / Sulfur Supply Disruption: The dominant macro risk for MOS. Roughly 50% of seaborne sulfur, 20% of global phosphate, 1/3 of urea, and 1/4 of ammonia originate in the Middle East. Refinery damage has disrupted supply chains; marginal sulfur cost cited at ~$1,200/tonne at Q1 call vs. Q2 guidance of ~$540/tonne realized (reflecting inventory flow). Implication: The trajectory of spot sulfur prices since May 11 is the single most important variable for Q2 results and H2 guidance. Any normalization is a significant positive catalyst.
• Ongoing — China Phosphate Export Ban Through August: China banned phosphate exports through August 2026, tightening global supply. Implication: Supportive for finished phosphate prices; partially offsets the raw material cost headwind on the revenue side.
• Ongoing — Brazil Credit Constraints & Nutrient Availability: Brazil imports ~85% of NPK needs; Q1 saw reduced nitrogen and phosphate imports, especially in April. Management cited 2026 as likely a contraction year for fertilizer use in Brazil. Implication: Headwind for Mosaic Fertilizantes; distribution margins may improve as volume selectivity increases, but overall EBITDA will be pressured.

7. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells were recorded in the period. All transactions on May 28, 2026 were routine director compensation grants (transaction code “M” — exercise/conversion of equity awards), not open-market purchases or sales. No meaningful insider signal either way.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings (filed June 1, 2026; transactions dated May 28, 2026). All transactions are Code M (exercise/conversion of equity awards) — routine director compensation grants, not open-market buys or sells. No open-market purchases (Code P) or sales (Code S) were recorded in the period. No 10b5-1 plan initiations disclosed.

8. Peer Commentary: Current-Quarter Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the past 60 days paints a mixed but directionally cautious picture for MOS’s Q2 2026 print. ICL’s raised FY 2026 guidance is the most directly positive read-through — a potash/phosphate peer seeing enough improvement to lift its full-year outlook. However, FMC and Corteva both flag a persistently challenging macro environment, strained farmer margins, and continued pricing pressure in Brazil and North America that are headwinds for MOS’s distribution business. The net read is: potash demand is healthy, but the broader agricultural input environment remains difficult, and Brazil credit/nutrient availability constraints are real.

Methodology: Only commentary published between June 3 and August 3, 2026 (past 60 days) that pertains to MOS’s Q2 2026 current reporting period or near-term forward outlook is included. Prior-quarter retrospective commentary (e.g., peers discussing their own Q1 2026 results without forward-looking content) has been excluded. Each read-through is labeled Direct (clearly applicable to MOS’s business) or Indirect (broader market signal with less direct applicability).

ICL Group (ICL) — 6-K Filed July 30, 2026

Relevance: ICL is a direct phosphate and potash peer with overlapping end markets. The July 30 filing contains forward-looking FY 2026 guidance and strategic commentary.

• [DIRECT] ICL raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.5B–$1.7B following strong Q2 performance. This is the most directly positive read-through for MOS: a major phosphate/potash peer seeing enough improvement in market conditions to lift its full-year outlook. If ICL’s phosphate and potash businesses are performing better than expected, it suggests the global supply/demand balance may be tightening in a way that benefits MOS’s pricing and volumes. MOS implication: Positive signal for potash pricing and potentially for phosphate market conditions; reduces the risk of a further downward guidance revision at MOS.
• [DIRECT] ICL announced a strategic focus on maximizing its Potash and Industrial Products businesses, reallocating resources to these core segments. This signals continued conviction in potash market fundamentals from a major global producer. MOS implication: Supportive for potash demand and pricing outlook; consistent with MOS’s own view that potash fundamentals remain balanced with robust global demand.
• [DIRECT] ICL identified specialty crop nutrition as a key growth engine, expecting it to “drive sustainable and profitable growth in the coming years.” MOS implication: Indirect positive for MOS’s MicroEssentials and Mosaic Biosciences premium product strategy; suggests the specialty crop nutrition market is growing.

Source: ICL Group 6-K filed July 30, 2026.

Corteva (CTVA) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 31, 2026) & Earnings Release (July 30, 2026)

Relevance: Corteva is a leading crop protection and seed company with deep exposure to the same farmer end markets as MOS. Its Q2 2026 commentary provides real-time color on farmer purchasing behavior, Brazil conditions, and the global agricultural backdrop.

• [DIRECT] Farmer margins remain tight globally, driving cautious purchasing behavior: “Farmer margins remain tight, so they continue to prioritize value-driven investments while remaining cautious on discretionary spending.” MOS implication: Tight farmer margins are a headwind for fertilizer demand, particularly for premium products. Farmers may defer or reduce applications, pressuring MOS’s volumes and pricing power.
• [DIRECT] Brazil credit conditions remain challenging: “Credit’s tight for the Brazilian farmer right now” — farmers are “wrestling with higher interest rates, some currency issues.” Additionally, “fuel and fertilizer prices” are “putting some stress on margins.” MOS implication: Directly corroborates MOS management’s own commentary on Brazil credit headwinds. Supports the view that Mosaic Fertilizantes will continue to face a difficult distribution environment in Q2 and H2 2026.
• [DIRECT] Brazil corn acreage expected to remain approximately flat in H2 2026, with potential for flattening in 2027 as well. Corteva does not expect “as big of an expansion of planted area in Sabrina that we’ve seen the last few years.” MOS implication: Flat-to-declining acreage expansion in Brazil’s key corn market reduces the demand tailwind for fertilizers in H2 2026 and into 2027.
• [DIRECT] Global demand for grains and oilseeds remains very strong; crop prices up year-over-year: “Global demand for food, feed and biofuels continues to grow. Crop prices are up.” MOS implication: Positive for long-term fertilizer demand fundamentals; higher crop prices improve farmer economics and support nutrient application rates over time.
• [INDIRECT] Corteva raised full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance to $4.1B–$4.3B (+9% YoY) and is “on track to complete separation on October 1.” MOS implication: Corteva’s confidence in H2 2026 suggests the broader agricultural market is not deteriorating further, though Corteva’s seed business is less directly exposed to the sulfur/phosphate dynamics affecting MOS.
• [INDIRECT] El Niño weather creating dry conditions in Europe and parts of the US, reducing fungicide demand. MOS implication: Dry conditions could reduce overall crop input applications in affected regions, a modest headwind for fertilizer demand.

Source: Corteva Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 31, 2026); Corteva Q2 2026 Earnings Release (July 30, 2026).

FMC Corporation (FMC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026) & Earnings Release (July 29, 2026)

Relevance: FMC is a global crop protection company with significant Brazil and North America exposure. Its Q2 2026 commentary provides the most detailed and cautious read on current farmer purchasing behavior and the macro agricultural environment.

• [DIRECT] Growers facing “difficult situation of low prices for many crops, combined with higher costs for inputs such as fertilizers and fuel”, leading to “carefully managing costs and reducing discretionary spending wherever possible.” MOS implication: Directly confirms that elevated fertilizer prices are squeezing farmer margins and driving cost-cutting behavior. This is a headwind for MOS’s volume and pricing power, particularly in North America.
• [DIRECT] FMC expects “the market conditions that we observed in the second quarter to persist in the third quarter” and is “not expecting major changes to market conditions” in Q4. Updated full-year guidance to reflect “more challenging macro environment.” MOS implication: The persistence of challenging conditions through Q3 and Q4 is a meaningful negative read-through for MOS’s H2 2026 outlook, particularly for Mosaic Fertilizantes distribution margins and North American potash/phosphate demand.
• [DIRECT] North America: “Strained margins drove careful purchasing behavior for growers of non-specialty crops”; distributors shifting orders from Q3 to Q4 to manage inventory. MOS implication: North American distributor destocking and order timing shifts could create Q3 volume headwinds for MOS’s potash and phosphate businesses, with potential Q4 recovery.
• [DIRECT] Brazil: FMC expects “healthy growth driven by increased direct sales to growers in Brazil” in Q4 2026, but is shifting distribution strategy away from distributors toward co-ops and direct sales, which “negatively impacts Q3 sales.” MOS implication: Brazil demand is expected to recover in Q4 but remains weak in Q3. The distribution channel shift signals structural changes in how agricultural inputs are sold in Brazil, which could affect Mosaic Fertilizantes’ go-to-market strategy.
• [DIRECT] Geopolitical uncertainty (Iran-related) continues to affect input costs: FMC assumes “Iran-related cost pressures and tariff-related benefits largely offset each other.” MOS implication: Confirms that Persian Gulf geopolitics remain an active cost variable for the agricultural input sector; consistent with MOS’s sulfur supply chain concerns.
• [DIRECT] FMC expects “strong cost favorability due to lower raw materials” in Q4 2026. MOS implication: If raw material costs (including sulfur) are expected to ease by Q4, this is a positive signal for MOS’s H2 phosphate cost structure, though the timing of sulfur normalization remains uncertain.
• [INDIRECT] FMC lowered full-year 2026 revenue guidance by ~7% at midpoint and EBITDA by ~23%, citing “more challenging operating environment” and “customer purchasing patterns.” MOS implication: While FMC’s business is crop protection (not fertilizers), the magnitude of the guidance cut reflects broad-based agricultural sector headwinds that are consistent with the difficult environment MOS is navigating.
• [INDIRECT] Chinese crop protection exports into Brazil and the US are “essentially stable — not going down, but certainly not going up”. MOS implication: Stable Chinese supply in the crop protection market suggests no additional supply shock from China in the near term; less directly relevant to MOS’s phosphate/potash business.

Source: FMC Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 30, 2026); FMC Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Release (July 29, 2026).

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

Note on excluded commentary: Nutrien (NTR) has not yet reported Q2 2026 results (earnings date not yet confirmed as of August 3, 2026). NTR’s Q2 2026 earnings would be the most directly relevant peer read-through given its near-identical phosphate and potash business mix, but no current-quarter commentary was available within the 60-day window. The Canaccord Genuity (CF CN) Q4 FY2026 earnings call (June 4, 2026) was excluded as it pertained to a different fiscal period and company (Canadian financial services, not CF Industries). SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro) commentary was not available in the research window.

Net read-through assessment: The peer commentary is net cautious for MOS’s Q2 2026 print. The positive signals (ICL guidance raise, Corteva’s strong global demand commentary) are more relevant to the long-term outlook and potash segment, while the negative signals (FMC’s persistent challenging conditions, Corteva’s Brazil credit/acreage concerns) are more directly relevant to MOS’s near-term phosphate and Fertilizantes performance. The most actionable read-through is FMC’s expectation of lower raw material costs in Q4 — if sulfur costs are indeed easing, MOS’s H2 guidance could be less dire than feared.