| MPC |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$7.00 vs. cons ~$6.20 |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA (total) |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.0B vs. cons ~$4.5B |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
R&M margin capture rate |
BEAT |
pred ~102% vs. cons ~97% |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Q2 share repurchases (capital return pace) |
BETTER |
guide/actual ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$1.5B (Q2 2026, off $8.6B authorization) |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Q3 2026 crude utilization guide |
BETTER |
guide ~95% vs. cons ~92% (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| MPC |
Guide |
Forward crack/margin durability commentary |
LOWER |
implied fwd R&M margin ~$18/bbl vs. cons ~$22/bbl (2H26, Hormuz/Iran de-escalation risk) |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
MPLX distribution growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~12.5% vs. cons ~12.5% (FY26-27) |
HIGH |
| MPC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FADE) |
Q2 is a genuine beat on windfall cracks, derivative unwind and high utilization, but stock nearly doubled y/y and already faded from its 7/21 high ($319.76) to $307 — a lot is priced in. The out-period math drives the fade: oil fell ~5% last week on Hormuz-reopening/Iran de-escalation talks, so the spot crack windfall is peaking. Even after a Q2 beat, sell-side pulls 2H26/Q3 refining estimates down as the supply shock normalizes, and a cautious durability tone plus buyback-into-peak concerns trigger profit-taking. Classic sell-the-news continuing lower. |
MEDIUM |