{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.00 vs. cons ~$6.20",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (total)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.0B vs. cons ~$4.5B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "R&M margin capture rate",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~102% vs. cons ~97%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 share repurchases (capital return pace)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide/actual ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$1.5B (Q2 2026, off $8.6B authorization)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 crude utilization guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~95% vs. cons ~92% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Forward crack/margin durability commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "implied fwd R&M margin ~$18/bbl vs. cons ~$22/bbl (2H26, Hormuz/Iran de-escalation risk)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MPLX distribution growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~12.5% vs. cons ~12.5% (FY26-27)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 is a genuine beat on windfall cracks, derivative unwind and high utilization, but stock nearly doubled y/y and already faded from its 7/21 high ($319.76) to $307 \u2014 a lot is priced in. The out-period math drives the fade: oil fell ~5% last week on Hormuz-reopening/Iran de-escalation talks, so the spot crack windfall is peaking. Even after a Q2 beat, sell-side pulls 2H26/Q3 refining estimates down as the supply shock normalizes, and a cautious durability tone plus buyback-into-peak concerns trigger profit-taking. Classic sell-the-news continuing lower.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}