| MPC |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$14.20 vs. cons ~$13.00 |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
R&M segment adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026, $/bbl-based) |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.3B vs. cons ~$5.8B |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
Total adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.8B vs. cons ~$6.3B |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Q3 2026 crude throughput/utilization guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~2,960 mbpd (~92% utilization) vs. cons ~2,990 mbpd (~94%) (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| MPC |
Guide |
FY2026 crack-spread durability / implied EPS trajectory commentary |
LOWER |
guide/implied ~$29 vs. cons ~$33 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Capital returns / buyback pace commentary |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.5B Q3 buybacks vs. cons ~$1.0B (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| MPC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.8% (FADE) |
Q2 print should beat handily on peak crack spreads and a hedging/derivative-timing reversal (mirroring VLO's ~+1.7% day-of-earnings alpha before it faded within days), but MPC enters more extended (72% 1yr rally, trading above avg PT) and the Iran de-escalation narrative (oil -5% w/w, active US-Iran talks) is already pressuring forward crack curves. Out-period math matters more than the backward-looking beat: Street's Q3 (~$9 EPS) and Q4 (~$6 EPS) estimates sit well below Q2's run-rate, and any cautious tone on margin normalization or confirmation that July/August cracks are narrowing should trigger 2H26/FY27 estimate cuts, pulling the stock back toward market performance or worse over the week even after an initial positive pop. |
MEDIUM |