{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$14.20 vs. cons ~$13.00",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "R&M segment adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026, $/bbl-based)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.3B vs. cons ~$5.8B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.8B vs. cons ~$6.3B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 crude throughput/utilization guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~2,960 mbpd (~92% utilization) vs. cons ~2,990 mbpd (~94%) (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 crack-spread durability / implied EPS trajectory commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide/implied ~$29 vs. cons ~$33 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital returns / buyback pace commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.5B Q3 buybacks vs. cons ~$1.0B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 print should beat handily on peak crack spreads and a hedging/derivative-timing reversal (mirroring VLO's ~+1.7% day-of-earnings alpha before it faded within days), but MPC enters more extended (72% 1yr rally, trading above avg PT) and the Iran de-escalation narrative (oil -5% w/w, active US-Iran talks) is already pressuring forward crack curves. Out-period math matters more than the backward-looking beat: Street's Q3 (~$9 EPS) and Q4 (~$6 EPS) estimates sit well below Q2's run-rate, and any cautious tone on margin normalization or confirmation that July/August cracks are narrowing should trigger 2H26/FY27 estimate cuts, pulling the stock back toward market performance or worse over the week even after an initial positive pop.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}