MPC Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MPC Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$14.65 vs. cons $13.95 MEDIUM
MPC Report R&M segment adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$5.55B vs. cons $5.35B MEDIUM
MPC Report Total refinery throughput IN-LINE pred ~2.98 MMbpd vs. cons 2.99 MMbpd HIGH
MPC Guide Total refinery throughput BETTER guide ~3.03 MMbpd vs. cons 3.00 MMbpd (3Q26) MEDIUM
MPC Guide Refining operating cost per barrel LOWER guide ~$5.55/bbl vs. cons $5.65/bbl (3Q26) MEDIUM
MPC Guide Planned turnaround expense LOWER guide ~$225M vs. cons $250M (3Q26) LOW
MPC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.8% MEDIUM
MPC Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.2% (FADE) Day-5 residual ~+1.2% vs. day-1 residual +2.8%: a solid beat and constructive 3Q26 operating guide should lift estimates initially, but peak-margin concerns and demanding valuation limit out-period revisions and cause part of the first-day gain to fade. LOW