{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$14.65 vs. cons $13.95",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "R&M segment adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.55B vs. cons $5.35B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total refinery throughput",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.98 MMbpd vs. cons 2.99 MMbpd",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total refinery throughput",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.03 MMbpd vs. cons 3.00 MMbpd (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining operating cost per barrel",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.55/bbl vs. cons $5.65/bbl (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Planned turnaround expense",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$225M vs. cons $250M (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.2,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Day-5 residual ~+1.2% vs. day-1 residual +2.8%: a solid beat and constructive 3Q26 operating guide should lift estimates initially, but peak-margin concerns and demanding valuation limit out-period revisions and cause part of the first-day gain to fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}