| MPC |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.55 vs. cons $6.30 |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.20B vs. cons $3.08B |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
Refining & Marketing capture rate |
BEAT |
pred ~102% vs. cons 100% |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
3Q26 total refinery throughput |
LOWER |
guide ~2.86 MMBbl/d vs. cons 2.90 MMBbl/d (3Q26) |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
3Q26 refining operating cost per barrel |
BETTER |
guide ~$5.70/bbl vs. cons $5.85/bbl (3Q26) |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Full-year refining planned turnaround expense |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.35B vs. cons $1.35B (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| MPC |
Guide |
3Q26 refining capture commentary |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~100% capture vs. cons 100% (3Q26) |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
A reported beat is likely to be helped by roughly $0.25/share of derivative-timing recovery and exceptionally strong 2Q cracks; pred ~$6.55 EPS vs. cons $6.30. A modestly lower 3Q throughput guide of ~2.86 MMBbl/d versus 2.90 MMBbl/d constrains out-period refining EBITDA revisions, so the initial positive reaction should partially fade. |
MEDIUM |