| MPC |
Report |
Capture Rate - Refining (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~100-103% vs. cons 93.3% |
HIGH |
| MPC |
Report |
EBITDA - Refining & Marketing (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.4-5.7B vs. cons $5.12B |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
Total Capacity Utilization (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~96-98% vs. cons 100.8% |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Utilization |
LOWER |
guide ~93-95% vs. cons 99.5% |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Buyback Pace / Capital Return (FY 2026) |
BETTER |
guide ~$8-9B vs. cons $7.97B |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Capture Rate Trajectory (Forward) |
BETTER |
confirm 100%+ structural trajectory vs. cons 93.3% |
HIGH |
| MPC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
FADE — Q3 utilization guide below consensus pulls near-term estimates down; initial pop gives back as models are revised; buyback signal limits downside but does not reverse |
MEDIUM |