{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Capture Rate - Refining (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~100-103% vs. cons 93.3%",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EBITDA - Refining & Marketing (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.4-5.7B vs. cons $5.12B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Capacity Utilization (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~96-98% vs. cons 100.8%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Utilization",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~93-95% vs. cons 99.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback Pace / Capital Return (FY 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$8-9B vs. cons $7.97B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capture Rate Trajectory (Forward)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "confirm 100%+ structural trajectory vs. cons 93.3%",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE \u2014 Q3 utilization guide below consensus pulls near-term estimates down; initial pop gives back as models are revised; buyback signal limits downside but does not reverse",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}