| MPC |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$14.60 vs. cons $14.11 |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
Refining capture rate |
BEAT |
pred ~96.0% vs. cons 93.3% |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Report |
R&M throughput |
IN-LINE |
pred ~3.01 MMBbl/d vs. cons 2.988 MMBbl/d |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Refining utilization (Q3 2026) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~95.0% vs. cons 95.0% |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
R&M throughput (Q3 2026) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~3.04 MMBbl/d vs. cons 3.027 MMBbl/d |
MEDIUM |
| MPC |
Guide |
Refining-margin / demand commentary (Q3/FY2026) |
UNCHANGED |
constructive commentary vs. quantitative consensus UNVERIFIED |
LOW |
| MPC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
LOW |
| MPC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
FOLLOW-THROUGH — strong Q2 but insufficient out-period lift |
LOW |