MRK Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRK Report Total revenue BEAT pred ~$16.6B vs. cons $16.33B MEDIUM
MRK Report Keytruda revenue BEAT pred ~$8.5B vs. cons ~$8.35B MEDIUM
MRK Report Gardasil/Gardasil 9 revenue MISS pred ~$0.90B vs. cons ~$1.02B MEDIUM
MRK Guide FY26 revenue guidance BETTER guide ~$66.5–67.5B vs. cons ~$66.5B (FY26) MEDIUM
MRK Guide FY26 non-GAAP EPS (underlying, ex one-time BD charges) BETTER guide ~$5.15–5.30 ex-charges vs. cons ~$5.10 (FY26); reported cut ~$2.47 for Terns LOW
MRK Guide WINREVAIR trajectory / H2 launch cadence commentary BETTER pred Q2 WINREVAIR ~$620M vs. cons ~$580M (2026Q2) LOW
MRK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
MRK Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) A revenue beat + FX-aided guide raise plus Keytruda durability should drive a modest day-1 pop, but the ~20% YTD run-up has reset the bar. Out-period math is a headwind: management pre-flagged a ~$250M Q3 Keytruda wholesaler-timing reversal and Gardasil China weakness caps upside revisions, so the initial gain fades as the Street trims 2H numbers even after the beat. MEDIUM