{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$16.6B vs. cons $16.33B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Keytruda revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$8.5B vs. cons ~$8.35B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gardasil/Gardasil 9 revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.90B vs. cons ~$1.02B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 revenue guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$66.5\u201367.5B vs. cons ~$66.5B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 non-GAAP EPS (underlying, ex one-time BD charges)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.15\u20135.30 ex-charges vs. cons ~$5.10 (FY26); reported cut ~$2.47 for Terns",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "WINREVAIR trajectory / H2 launch cadence commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred Q2 WINREVAIR ~$620M vs. cons ~$580M (2026Q2)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A revenue beat + FX-aided guide raise plus Keytruda durability should drive a modest day-1 pop, but the ~20% YTD run-up has reset the bar. Out-period math is a headwind: management pre-flagged a ~$250M Q3 Keytruda wholesaler-timing reversal and Gardasil China weakness caps upside revisions, so the initial gain fades as the Street trims 2H numbers even after the beat.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}