MRK Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRK Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$16.55B vs. cons $16.35B MEDIUM
MRK Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q2 2026, ex/incl Terns charge) BEAT pred ~-$0.18 vs. cons -$0.27 MEDIUM
MRK Report Keytruda + Keytruda Qlex sales (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$8.20B vs. cons $8.05B MEDIUM
MRK Guide FY2026 Revenue guidance (updated to include Terns) UNCHANGED guide ~$66.4B vs. cons $66.4B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MRK Guide FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS guidance (updated to include Terns dilution) LOWER guide ~$4.92 vs. cons $5.10 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MRK Guide Keytruda Qlex quarterly sales trajectory BETTER guide ~$365M vs. cons $334M (Q2 2026) MEDIUM
MRK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.8% MEDIUM
MRK Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.4% (FADE) Initial relief that the reported loss is a known M&A-charge artifact and that Keytruda/Qlex/Lipfendra trends are intact should drive a modest positive day-1 pop, but the newly incorporated Terns dilution (~$0.12/share ongoing drag) plus reaffirmed-not-raised full-year EPS guidance means sell-side models will mechanically trim out-year (2026-2027) EPS even after a headline beat, causing estimate revisions to drift lower over the following days and eroding the initial gain as analysts update FY2026/2027 EPS bridges for the closed Terns deal. LOW