MRK Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRK Report Total revenue IN-LINE pred ~$16.45B vs. cons $16.33B MEDIUM
MRK Report KEYTRUDA / KEYTRUDA QLEX sales IN-LINE pred ~$8.14B vs. cons $8.08B MEDIUM
MRK Report WINREVAIR sales BEAT pred ~$0.64B vs. cons $0.61B MEDIUM
MRK Guide FY2026 revenue guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$66.40B midpoint vs. cons $66.40B midpoint (FY2026) HIGH
MRK Guide FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance, including Terns effects LOWER guide ~$2.62 midpoint vs. cons $2.66 midpoint (FY2026) MEDIUM
MRK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% MEDIUM
MRK Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) A modest sales/WINREVAIR-led beat should initially outweigh the mechanically acquisition-distorted EPS print, but the FY2026 EPS midpoint of ~$2.62 versus ~$2.66 consensus embeds incremental Terns financing/development drag and leaves little room for upward out-period revisions; the initial ~+1.2% residual is therefore likely to fade toward ~+0.3% by day five. MEDIUM